August 3, 2021

The AIReF multiplies by six the forecasts of arrivals of immigrants of the INE for the next 30 years

The AIReF multiplies by six the forecasts of arrivals of immigrants of the INE for the next 30 years

The Independent Authority of Fiscal Responsibility (AIRef) has published its first demographic forecast, in which it considers that the Spanish population will grow in the next 30 years more than what the official figures of the INE calculate. The agency estimates that the population can reach 60 million people in 2050, compared to 44 in the INE, and much of that difference is based on a significant difference in the forecast of arrivals of immigrants: the AIReF estimates that some 270,000 net immigrants in the coming years, while the official figures is six times lower, about 45,000 people per year.

The AIReF forecasts, presented this Thursday in Madrid, estimate that the Spanish population in 2050 will reach between 51 and 60 million people, which in total terms implies an increase compared to the projections of the INE and Eurostat, which are betting on the 44 and 49 million people for that year.

Although the total population is larger, AIReF is more optimistic about how many citizens will have working-age Spain: while the INE foresees a contraction of about 7 million people between the 16 and 66 years, the The independent tax authority considers that the number will not vary significantly from the current one, and that it will remain "around 30 million." The forecast moves away from the image towards a "Japanization" of the economy that the analysis organism does not share.

These new demographic forecasts could relax, in the most optimistic scenarios of the AIReF, the dependency ratio (ratio between the elderly population and the working-age population) with respect to the INE: the agency considers that this rate can be doubled. 25% current until a range of 45 -60% in 2050. This last figure, the 60% dependency rate is estimated by the INE.

More children and more immigration

The forecasts of the AIReF start, above all, from two assumptions: an increase in immigration, as well as the fertility rate also above the INE calculations.

Fiscal analysts estimate that the fertility rate, which currently stands at 1.3 children per woman, reaches 1.8 to 2 children per woman in 2050. Its estimate significantly increases that of the INE (slightly higher than 1.4 children).

Estimates about migration flows are also at a great distance: while official statistics trust that the net migratory balance remains more or less static at the entry of about 45,000 net immigrants per year until 2050, AIReF shoots that figure up to 270,000 annually.


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