Ten keys to the 1-O anniversary with the ruling and the CDR in the foreground



The second anniversary of the unilateral referendum of October 1, 2017 comes in full resurgence of political tension in Catalonia, following the imprisonment of seven members of the Defense Committees of the Republic (CDR) and on the eve of the Supreme Court ruling about the 'procés'.

These are the ten keys that give context to the ephemeris:

1. ACCOUNT BEHIND THE JUDGMENT

The most decisive factor in the coming days will be the judgment of the 'procés' that will be issued by the Supreme Court, predictably before October 16, when the two years in preventive detention of Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sànchez are completed and should be extended, a matter That he doesn't like among the judges.

From the independentist ranks claim the acquittal of the twelve defendants - nine of them in provisional prison - who faced the trial of the 'procés' between February and June, but at the same time they assume that there will be convictions, so for months there are conversations to try to agree a unit response.

Both Puigdemont and the other six independence leaders who fled Spain to avoid the trial of the 'procés' are very aware of the outcome of the sentence, since the investigating judge, Pablo Llarena, can decide to reactivate the arrest warrants that he himself withdrew after the refusal of a German court to deliver to the former president of the Generalitat.

2. DISOBEDIENCE AS AN ANSWER?

Discrete contacts have not yet served so that sovereign parties and entities agree on a response strategy if there are convictions, beyond providing for massive protest mobilizations, which could include a 'country strike' and occupations of key spaces.

The Parliament approved on Thursday a resolution of the CUP, supported by JxCat and ERC, which endorses "civil and institutional disobedience" to defend civil, political and social rights, but there is no agreement on how to translate those words into deeds, and on certain sectors there are serious doubts about the desirability of this path: the former president of the Generalitat Artur Mas, for example, has already warned that "institutional disobedience is not effective".

Parked the idea of ​​a concentration government suggested by ERC -and answered with a bang by the commons and the CUP-, and discarded for the moment a new referendum, the independents bet to claim an "amnesty" and exercise self-determination, without clarifying yet in what format it would be exercised, although according to some sovereign voices, it could be reflected in "restraint" elections.

3. IMPACT OF THE 'JEWISH OPERATION'

The commemoration of 1-O arrives this year under the impact of the 'Operation Judas', carried out on Monday by the Civil Guard and which has involved, by decision of the judge of the National Court Manuel García Castellón, the entry into prison of seven members of the Defense Committees of the Republic (CDR), for allegedly integrating a "hierarchical" organization that sought to establish the Catalan Republic by "any means, including violent ones".

JxCat, ERC and the CUP have denounced that behind the operation there is a willingness of the State to instill "fear", at the gates of the mobilizations that can unleash the sentence, while the constitutionalist parties reproach them not to uncheck detainees who is accused of preparing violent sabotage.

4. CDR: UNCONTROLLABLE FACTOR OF INDEPENDENTISM

Official independence has long been uncomfortable with the prominence of the CDR, with an anarchizing structure, decentralized and without visible heads, accustomed to acting without being subject to institutional strategies.

Their clashes with the Mossos d'Esquadra in some demonstrations had already put the Government parties on alert, for fear that the uncontrolled actions of the CDRs would crack the story of nonviolence, and the arrests last Monday do not do more Than confirm that the risk is real.

Precisely to channel the protests after the sentence and prevent them from leaving the channels of pacifism, Tsunami Democràtic has emerged, an initiative that also acts from secrecy and based on the mobilizing capacity of social networks.

5. THE ROLE OF TORRA

On October 1, 2018, on the first anniversary of the event, the president of the Generalitat, Quim Torra, addressed "the friends of the CDR" to encourage them to continue pressing for effective independence: "Press, you do well in tightening, "he said in Sant Julià de Ramis (Girona), words that have since become ammunition for the opposition.

Torra has been one of the most vehement when subtracting credit to the accusations that weigh on the detained CDRs, and has even addressed a letter to the acting President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, to show his "outrage", considering that It is all part of a hidden strategy to link the independence movement to terrorism.

He has not waited to know, then, what are the indications collected during a year by the Civil Guard, although according to the judge the detainees could have incurred the crimes of belonging to a terrorist organization, manufacture and possession of explosives and conspiracy to cause havoc.

6. CS AND PPC, AGAINST THE "VIOLENTA" DERIVA

The first effect of the entry into prison of the CDRs was a tense anger in the Parliament between independent and Cs deputies, with crossing of insults and tense discussions in the hemicycle.

The president of the Parliamentary group of Citizens, Carlos Carrizosa, ended up being expelled after being called four times to order, after expressing his "immense shame" for the show of support of the deputies of JxCat and ERC to those in jail.

Both Cs and the PPC have warned of the "violent" drift of an independence movement that makes flag of the peaceful nature of their claims.

7. THE MOSSOS, IN THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE

Complex weeks are approaching for the body of the Mossos d'Esquadra and for an Interior Minister, Miquel Buch, more questioned than ever between sovereign bases, after recent charges against protesters trying to prevent an eviction in the Sants neighborhood from Barcelona and after the controversy over the possible use of pepper gas to stop altercations this fall.

Torra himself has often been more sensitive to those who criticize the actions of the Mossos than with the arguments of his conseller, who before the summer was willing to play a relevant role at the head of JxCat and is now weakened.

Protests in the street that can trigger the 'procés' sentence will put Buch's resistance to the test more and can place the Mossos as targets of the reproaches of sovereignty if there are again, as on previous occasions, clashes with protesters.

8. TWO RELIEF TRIALS IN NOVEMBER

Beyond a hot October, there are two trials on the horizon that can further remove the political board in Catalonia.

The Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia (TSJC) set for November 18 the trial of Torra, which can be disqualified for not withdrawing the yellow ties in electoral campaign in time, a hypothetical disqualification that would precipitate new elections if another president was not invested , although before the vice president of the Government, Pere Aragonès, would assume de facto his functions.

Just after, between November 19 and 22, the TSJC will judge the sovereignist members of the Mesa del Parlament during the 1-O legislature and the ex-deputy of the CUP Mireia Boya for allowing the processing of the disconnection laws in 2017 .

9. ELECTORAL REVALID

The month of October will also be conditioned by the repetition of the general elections, on November 10, which in Catalonia will still be held under the effects of a 'procés' sentence that could help mobilize the ERC and JxCat electorate.

The PSC faces them with good expectations and hoping to snatch the victory that won the 28A from ERC; the commons fear that the electoral irruption of Iñigo Errejón with Más País will affect them; and Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo aims to repeat as a PPC candidate, having failed to convince Inés Arrimadas and Cs to form a unitary list.

10. JXCAT, EVEN WITHOUT REORDERING

The process of reordering the political space of JxCat - of which the PDeCAT and the National Crida per la República are part - had to culminate in July, but internal discrepancies on the strategic project and the names that should lead it forced it to postpone it to September; In the end, this month nothing has been uneven, and the 10N appointment has forced to postpone any solution again.

The meeting held in Belgium by Artur Mas and Carles Puigdemont on September 19 served to advance, but much internal debate remains to be resolved.

If it is not possible to convert JxCat - now a simple electoral umbrella - into a unified political organization, Mas has already opened the door for the PDeCAT and Crida to maintain their structures and concur in coalition whenever there are elections.

Roger Mateos

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