Spending on pensions in Spain will increase four percentage points of GDP by 2050, to 18%, if they are linked to the CPI and no measures are taken to compensate for this increase, according to the economic services estimated by the European Commission in a report published today. The EU ratifies the information published also today by LA RAZÓN and even increases the amount of the link to the IPC. The report warns that the country faces "high risks of fiscal sustainability" in the medium and long term.
"The recent temporary deviations of the 2013 reform and the plans to regain the link between pensions and the CPI will probably increase spending in the medium and long term, unless compensatory measures are adopted," says the EU executive in the document in which it evaluates the economic imbalances of the Spanish economy.
The calculations on the increase in pension spending to link them to the CPI are close to the projections prepared by institutions such as the Bank of Spain, which puts this payroll at 16% of GDP, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or Fedea, although it highlights that AIReF considers that the impact will be lower, specifically 13.4% in 2048.
The document indicates that a net increase of 33% of immigrants could imply a reduction in pension expenditure equivalent to 0.5% of GDP, a figure that, however, would be reduced by 0.2% as immigrants begin to collect a retirement pension.
On the other hand, the EU Executive expects that, under normal economic conditions and assuming a constant structural balance, public debt will exceed 107% of GDP in 2029.
The report points out that, despite everything, Spain has a certain margin with a tax increase since the ratio of taxes in relation to GDP is lower than in Europe. Tax revenues for 2017, he points out, represented 33.8% of GDP, a percentage that rises to 40.2% in the eurozone and 39% in the bloc as a whole.