In this way, the panel has maintained its forecasts on the growth of the Spanish economy with respect to the report of the previous quarter.
Regarding expectations, 71.8% of experts rated the current economic moment as "good", while it is "regular" for 24.8%. Likewise, the number of executives who consider that the economy will be worse within a year has fallen from 68.6% to 56.4%.
On the economic-financial situation of the families, the answers have remained practically unchanged with respect to the 'Economic Consensus' of the previous quarter. Thus, 66.4% believe that it is "fair", while 31.9% have described it as "good". For this reason, 67.2% of experts trust that the demand for more families will remain stable in the coming months, while 18.1% expect it to increase.
On the other hand, for 69.8% of those consulted, the economic-financial situation of the companies is "good", while for 30.2% it is "fair". Despite this, 43.5% believe that job creation will remain "stable", while up to 33% say it will "decrease" in the coming months.
Also, although the European Central Bank (ECB) has warned on several occasions in recent weeks that it does not rule out new stimuli if risks continue to materialize for the economy, 81.6% of the surveys expect the reference interest rate to the refinancing operations of the eurozone will remain at 0% at least until the end of the year, although only 57.5% considers that it will remain unchanged until June 2020.
A third of the respondents estimate that by the middle of next year the monetary authority will have raised the price of money. 21.2% expect the interest rate to be 0.05% in June 2020, while up to 11.5% anticipate that it will have increased to 0.25%.
THE COMMERCIAL WAR, A RISK
With regard to the assessment of the economic situation worldwide, 54.2% of the panelists have said that it is "good", four percentage points more than in the report of the previous quarter, while it is "regular" for 44.1%
The main concern for experts, managers and businessmen focuses on the risks arising from protectionist tensions. Secondly, the risks associated with international geopolitical equilibrium have been placed, while the third position has been for the uncertainty of Brexit and European integration.
In this sense, the commercial war is the main problem in the short and medium term of the world economy for 60.2% of the respondents, while up to 71% consider that the battle between the United States and China for the 5G is going to repeat in the coming years in other areas, such as quantum computers or biotechnology.
Likewise, more than half of the panelists think that the European Union has already lost the technological battle and that China will become in 2050 the main economic and hegemonic power in the world. Despite this, 56% believe that the EU should lead the international defense of free trade because neither Washington nor Beijing are "playing fair".
. (tagsToTranslate) Spain (t) grow (t) PwC