June 20, 2021

Spain, Portugal, Greece and Denmark, among the candidates



Brussels will approve the first national plans next week. One more step for European funds to start circulating. This was announced by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, this Tuesday at the plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. “Next week the European Commission will start testing recovery plans for adoption [después] of Council [los Gobiernos]Von der Leyen said: “Our recovery is going to get under way. Money is going to start flowing in the next few weeks. To date we have received 23 national plans. These plans send out a very clear signal, a very clear message: Europeans are ready for a new beginning. ”

And Spain, Portugal, Greece and Denmark are some of the candidates to receive the approval of the European Commission in the next week (on June 17 and 18 there is Eurogroup and Ecofin). Spain, for example, delivered its plan on April 30, and the European Executive had up to two months to make its evaluation, a preliminary step for that of the Council, which has up to one more month.

To do this, the EU has had to overcome the last major obstacle so that the 750,000 million euros of recovery funds agreed almost a year ago after five days of negotiations between the Heads of State and Government in Brussels begin to arrive. That step was the approval by the 27 national parliaments of the order of own resources, the necessary and essential legislation that enables the European Commission to go to the markets to issue community debt with which to finance European funds, of which 140,000 will go to Spain – although, for the moment, it has only requested the 69,500 million corresponding to transfers and not to credits, which can be requested until 2026 -, which expects the first 9,000 this summer – 13% of pre-financing.

In the case of Spain, Brussels trusts 140,000 million of European funds to correct the “imbalances” in the Spanish economy. The European Commission decided last week to keep the spending tap open until 2023, and has asked Spain to “apply a prudent fiscal policy”, while acknowledging that “the measures adopted by the Spanish authorities to support companies and households they have helped mitigate the impact of the crisis on the banking sector. ”

The president of the Socialists in the European Parliament, Iratxe García, has affirmed in the debate: “We will not allow austerity to return. The Commission, the Council and this Parliament must take a great leap with a great social pact like the one that gave birth the Welfare State after the Second World War “.

The vice president of Renew Europe and spokesman for Ciudadanos, Luis Garicano, for his part, has been critical of Von der Leyen about the Spanish plan: “In Spain’s plan I see three serious problems: the lack of reforms; the plans spend a lot of money in things and not in citizens, green investment must be transformative, not consumer goods subsidy. I hope it does its job and is not a lost opportunity for Europe. ”

The vice president of the Greens and MEP of Catalonia in Comú, Ernest Urtasun, has defended, for his part: “There are things that concern us as green, such as the minimum 37% in ecological transition or the gender perspective”. And he has responded to Garicano: “The reformist agenda of the Spanish plan is the largest in history. Some criticize because they do not like the reforms, if someone wants pension cuts, let them say so. But the times of the troika have passed We must look to the future. ”

The Junts MEP, Carles Puigdemont, also said in the plenary session of Strasbourg: “There are billions that could go to SMEs and that will go to large companies, this is unacceptable.” The ERC MEP, Jordi Solé, has criticized “that the regions have not been involved in the recovery plans, the regional governments must be involved in the governance of the funds.”

‘Hamiltonian’ moment

The processing in the 27 national parliaments is the previous step of what some in Brussels call moment Hamiltonian to the fact that, for the first time in history, such an amount of debt is issued on a community basis.

Alexander Hamilton, first secretary of the US Treasury, managed in 1790 to put Thomas Jefferson and James Madison in agreement to resolve the debt accumulated after the revolutionary and independence process.

Hamilton succeeded in laying the foundations for a strong federal government by getting the national executive to take over and pay state debts, and Jefferson and Madison got the national capital for the south: the District of Columbia, instead of New York or Philadelphia

The agreement that Hamilton reached resolved the impasse in Congress and was a step forward in the federal integration of the country. The South was blocking the assumption of state debts by the Treasury to undermine the program Hamiltonian to build a fiscally strong federal government. And the North rejected the proposal, much desired by Virginians, to locate the permanent national capital on the Virginia-Maryland border.

Is the agreement of the 27 to issue joint debt a kind of moment Hamiltonian in the European Union? As in 1790, it is about dealing with a large public debt after a deep crisis. As then, the south and the north were mutually blocking each other. As at that time, the crisis may be an opportunity to make a federalist leap forward through the issuance of 750,000 million debt by the European Commission, which also goes hand in hand with the approval of European taxes to address to repay that debt.

The culmination of the process before the end of May even paid for the Brussels forecasts that the first items of European funds will begin to arrive in July, 9,000 million of which would be for Spain.

In this evaluation process, the European Commission has sent a letter to the Spanish Government. “Throughout the evaluation period, the European Commission is in constant contact with all Member States, including Spain, on the content of their recovery and resilience plans,” say sources from the Community Executive, who do not clarify or who signs the letter , nor to whom it is addressed, nor when it was sent or what content it had. However, sources consulted by elDiario.es have confirmed that, among other issues, Brussels is asking about structural ERTEs.

“These exchanges are a completely normal part, foreseen in the evaluation procedure in accordance with the regulation of the recovery funds,” Brussels continues: “The objective is to clarify any doubts or request additional information.”

Economics sources explain that “there are no substantive issues, but rather technical issues related to some of the thousands of data that are given in the plan. In some cases what we are talking about is not changes, but rather clarifications. It’s a regular interaction like we’ve had for months and now it would be the last fringes to clarify some more technical aspects that don’t affect the substance elements of the plan.

“The forecast is that we will adopt the first proposals for decisions in the second part of June,” said Finance Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni (PD / S & D) in the European Parliament. Once it is approved by the European Commission –for which it has two months–, the ball goes to the rest of the Ecofin members –for which they have up to one month–. “The Commission has two months for the evaluation. We will try to have the first evaluations before the end of June. Then it depends on the Council, which has a month, but could speed up decision-making a little,” recalled the economic vice-president, Valdis Dombrovskis : “The first proposals of the Commission will be presented in the second half of June. I will not go into details regarding the current evaluation. In general we can be satisfied with the work carried out without prejudging the evaluation of the individual plans. There is a good balance between investments and reforms, and the green and digital objectives will be achieved, in some cases with considerable margin. The plans in general have a fairly important social dimension, with elements of social inclusion and equality, and will contribute to the application of the European Pillar of Social Rights “.

The European Commission has recently improved the Spanish economic outlook (from 5.6% to 5.9%) thanks to the impact of European funds, which will grow above the EU average in 2021, although they are still below those of the Government (6.5%). The projections of the Community Executive project that the EU economy will expand by 4.2% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, while the Spanish one will lead and reach 5.9% in 2021 and 6, 8% in 2022. This represents a significant improvement in growth prospects compared to the 2021 winter economic forecast presented by the Commission in February. “Growth rates will continue to vary across the EU, but all Member States should see their economies return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022,” says Brussels.

Therefore, “the strong rebound expected from the second quarter of 2021 should allow Spanish GDP to return to its pre-pandemic level by the end of 2022,” says Brussels, adding: “The implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan [los 140.000 millones de fondos europeos] will play an important role in economic expansion, particularly in 2022. Dynamic domestic demand is expected to be the main driver of the recovery, accompanied by external demand in 2022, when tourism is expected to return to more normal conditions. The economic recession worsened the general government balance in 2020, but the deficit is expected to gradually decrease from 2021. ”

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