The credit rating agency S&P Global has worsened its forecasts again and now calculates that the Spanish economy will fall 9.8% in 2020 due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic and grow 6.8% in 2021 and 3.8 % in 2022.
Just a week ago, he estimated that the decline in Spanish GDP would be 7.5% in 2020 and was more optimistic about the recovery, since in 2021 he calculated that the economy could rise by 6.9%, and in 2022, 6 , 2%, well above the 3.8% forecast now.
In a report released Wednesday, S&P explains that the severity of the economic downturn and lingering fears of a virus outbreak in the absence of a vaccine point to a “complicated” path to recovery, which will be substantially different between countries and sectors. .
The agency argues that it is “too early” to assess the magnitude of the recession and the costs involved, since the virus has not disappeared and the shape of the economic recovery remains unclear.
Furthermore, he cautions that social distancing can change consumers’ habits and preferences, including those related to travel, which he estimates may not fully recover until at least 2023.
However, with the support of stimulus measures, the European economies are reopening tentatively and during the summer there may be a respite in credit conditions, which makes financing cheaper, before it is necessary to make political and commercial decisions. “difficult”.
S&P warns that among the main risks for the economy is a resurgence of the virus before there is a vaccine, but also a credit deterioration if companies have solvency problems, despite measures to support liquidity.
The agency does not overlook a possible escalation in global bilateral trade tensions, mainly from the United States, or the risk that there will be no free trade agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union.