American experts linked to fields such as economic growth, development economy or the business world appear as favorites in the pools before the Nobel Prize in Economics, which is missed tomorrow and for which the Spanish Manuel Arellano also sounds like a candidate.
Arellano is one of the five names highlighted by the American firm Clarivate Analytics, which produces a list each year based on the impact that potential applicants have had in their field of study, measured by the number of times their jobs are cited by the scientific community
The Spanish economist stands out for his contributions in the field of econometrics, especially the Arellano-Bond estimator, developed with Stephen Bond, of the University of Oxford, who also appears among the aspirants, according to Clarivate Analytics.
Since 1991, Arellano has been a professor at the Center for Monetary and Financial Studies (Cemfi), which is the foundation of the Bank of Spain and a graduate school on economics.
The Spanish economist, who won the Jaime I Prize for Economics in 2012, is a "fellow" of the Econometric Society and a foreign honorary member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
Economics is, along with Physics, the only Nobel that has never won a Spanish or a Latin American.
Americans Wesley M. Cohen, of Duke University, and Daniel A. Levinthal, of Pennsilvania, could be awarded for their studies on companies, while the Nobel could recognize his compatriot David M. Kreps, of Stanford, for their contributions to the dynamic economy, according to Clarivate Analytics.
In a forecast released today, the Swedish agency TT points instead to scholars of economic growth as Paul Romer (New York University) and Robert Barro (Harvard), as well as Esther Duflo, of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), expert in development economics.
The Nobel of Economy, whose real name is Prize of Economic Sciences in memory of Alfred Nobel, is the unique one of the six awards not created in his day by the Swedish magnate, but that was instituted in 1968 from a donation to the Foundation Nobel of the National Bank of Sweden on the occasion of its 300th anniversary.
The prize has been awarded 49 times by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences to 79 people, but only one woman has won it, the American Elinor Ostrom, who shared it in 2009 with Oliver Williamson for his analyzes on economic policy of common properties .
The previous pools are mere speculation, since the list of candidates can not be known until after fifty years.
Every year the Nobel Committee of Economics sends confidential letters to competent persons in the area as members of the Royal Academy of Sciences, former winners of the prize or Economics professors of Nordic universities.
The winner or winners will receive the 9 million Swedish crowns (970,000 euros) that this year are awarded the Nobel, which are delivered on December 10 in a double ceremony in Oslo, for Peace, and Stockholm, for the rest .