The different evolution of BBVA and Santander in the stock market in recent years has been increasing the difference in market value between the two. With the closing of this Monday, the Santander was worth 69,910 million compared to the 34,773 million of its competitor, just twice. Far are the years before the crisis in which the entity chaired by Ana Botín reached 100,000 million and that of Francisco González 70,000 million.
So far this year BBVA has fallen by 26% compared to 21% decrease in the Cantabrian entity. Both banks are punished by the low profitability of the business caused by the negative rates, in addition to their international position.
"However, investors are more suspicious of the position of BBVA in Turkey than of Santander in Brazil. In addition, Santander is in the United Kingdom and in the euro zone with consumer banking, which gives it more financial stability, "recalls Victoria Torre, an analyst at Self Trade. In the opinion of this specialist, BBVA made a major bet for the entry of Turkey into the European Union, but the geopolitical situation has worsened in recent years "and the country risk and this country's dependence on the dollar causes a greater punishment of investors. " BBVA has reached this situation despite the fact that in 1999, when BBV and Argentaria merged, its market value was higher than that of Santander.
This Monday was the first day in which the BBVA quoted without right to receive the next dividend that will be delivered this month, which will be 0.10 euros gross per share. The dividend yield in the last 12 months is 4.75% for BBVA compared to 5.08% for Santander.
The two big banks are in this situation, although just over a month ago, Morgan Stanley analysts issued a report with high target prices in both cases. If the forecasts of Morgan Stanley are fulfilled, the largest bank of the Ibex would fully recover all that was lost in 2018, by clearly exceeding the 5.29 euros with which it ended 2017, and would return to approach the barrier of 100 billion dollars. euros of capitalization. For the BBVA also predicted a strong rally to place the target price at 6.70 euros per share, compared with 5.22% with closed on Monday. Unlike Santander, in the case of BBVA this comeback would not be enough to recover everything lost in 2018.