Politics has become as unpredictable as the world. But they - the parties - continue using the polls, not as a source of information, but as a political instrument to draw up strategies. And that there are clamorous examples across the planet that they are not infallible. USA, United Kingdom, Andalusia .... Many are the signs that the predictions of the demography can fall in broken sack, either because they are not read correctly, or by the increasing volatility of the vote. At the end of the day, they are nothing more than that, x-rays of a specific moment, and not an exact science capable of "nailing" the election results.
In spite of everything and before the failure of the negotiation of the left for a progressive Government, there are already polls of all the colors and tendencies that study meticulously in the headquarters of all the parties. Also in La Moncloa. And, according to the latest data on the sample collected in the first week of September, on vacation, what they believe in the Presidency of the Government is that if on November 10 the Spaniards return to the polls, the PSOE will register a slight increase in voting intention that would win a handful of seats - between 5 and 8 more than it has now - but would still need United We and the PNV to add a majority. The key, the sources consulted point out, is that the support or abstention of the independentistas would no longer be necessary to carry out the investiture.
If these forecasts are fulfilled or will not be known when the polls are opened, but not depending on the votes of the independence movement is not trivial for Pedro Sánchez, considering that the right has turned Catalonia, 1-0, the possible pardons to the leaders of the process and the application of article 155 again to suspend autonomy in one of its main opposition arguments against the president of the acting Government.
The sum of PSOE, United We can and PNV, according to the data that throws those newly made surveys, would be enough to carry out an investiture, the experience of the negotiation frustrated during the last weeks has led to the Socialists to trust more in a future abstention of the PP to govern alone. The same one that the president has been asking those of Casado and Rivera since April 28 without much success and that, however, the Socialists would see closer after a second round because they believe that the PP would have very difficult escape from it .
It happened to the PSOE in 2016 and in the headquarters of the Socialists they argue that it is what is expected of a responsible PP and with a sense of state if there is finally an electoral repetition. To resume a negotiation with those of Iglesias, after the deterioration of relations between two parties, is not in their plans in the medium term although the electoral board was practically identical to the one thrown at the polls five months ago. At the same time, the Socialists defend that the PP has not felt the pressure that the PSOE endured three and a half years ago so that with its abstention they facilitated the Rajoy government for the sake of a supposed political and institutional stability. "We are living the bloodiest crisis of how many the PSOE has had in democracy. We opened in the channel, the secretary general resigned, a manager assumed the reins of the party ... and even today all this is in the memory of militancy and pictures ", defends one of the socialist barons that lived that schism in the front line.
The fluid relationship between Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Casado has only triggered speculation about a supposed tacit agreement to resurrect bipartisanship, which does not mean that the president of the PP has internalized at this time that what corresponds to him is to let govern on the left. In the headquarters of the popular deny the major and say not to be for the work now or after a second round, if there were: "You can not ask us for responsibility when only Sanchez and his irresponsibility can attribute this blocking situation" .
Although in Moncloa they hope to make profitable in votes the errors attributed to Iglesias to those who are tied to the mast of a drifting ship that is Podemos, in the PSOE they are not so clear and fear that the punishment of a part of the electorate after the failure Negotiations do not change acronyms, but take refuge in abstention. Any calculation can be risky because the tiredness and apathy that are now installed in the electoral body do not guarantee at all that the left as a whole will add more votes than it has now.
With the downward trend of Citizens, which in the polls notes a certain risk of falling apart in favor of a clear shift of its electorate towards the PP, Casado - who would also recover part of the votes that were left for VOX - could add around 20 deputies more than the 66 he has now and that would give him the clear leadership in the block on the right. This in addition to a consolidation of its internal position within the party. A gesture of magnanimity in these circumstances would make him grow whole inside and outside the party. That is the calculation of the socialists. Whatever comes, remains to be seen. It will depend on the results of Citizens and We can. Neither of the two formations, at the moment and despite its downward price, is at risk of disappearance, but the objective of bipartisanship is to convert both into a synonym for instability.
. (tagsToTranslate) PSOE (t) depend (t) independentistas (t) PP (t) abstain