Sanchez, Germany and Italy

Pedro Sánchez is still trying to unravel the reasons why his government has a bad image in the polls no matter how well his administration is valued, as sociologist Belén Barreiro warned him in January in an article in 'El País'. The president believes and this is demonstrated by his actions since the July 2021 crisis, that it is a problem of faces. First, the ministerial cast -Ábalos y Calvo- was questioned, and in 2022, that of the party. What no one dares to put on the table is that perhaps it is Sánchez himself who destroys the credibility of the Executive because he says or does one thing and the opposite of him. The episode of the reduction of the VAT rate on gas, which caught many ministers with the usual arguments, is instructive. It is of little use to say that the one who convinced Sánchez was not Feijóo but Scholz. Meanwhile, the great threats to the economy are beginning to materialize. In the Government two are clearly sighted: one is the impact on the German economy of the Russian gas cut and the other is the almost certain victory of Giorgia Meloni in the elections of September 25 in Italy. Related News opinion If Sánchez brings back 'military Keynesianism' John Müller The concept reflects the eminent role that Keynes assigned to the military in public spending and has been especially reviled by the radical left in the US. Very weakened after the end of the Cold War, returns in glory and majesty after Putin's aggression The first is already taking shape. That Putin was going to use the 'general winter' against Europe was discounted. But the partial cuts that have been taking place with different excuses are already causing economic disruption and the gas bill is brutally raising costs in some areas. Very electricity-intensive sectors, such as aluminum, are beginning to turn off their furnaces. As a recent note from Bloomberg recalled, the oven that is turned off usually does not work again. In July, the IMF warned of the impact of the Russian gas cut on the German economy. There was talk of almost 5% of GDP spread over three years. The main German economic institutes maintain that the cut would cause "a strong recession" and a loss of 220,000 million euros. Brussels, for its part, estimates that the impact of the cut in the Eurozone would mean up to 1.5 points of GDP, which is more than the growth forecast for 2023, of 1.4%. There are analysts who believe that, since Germany accounts for 28% of the euro zone economy, the calculation is optimistic. Meloni's rise to power in Italy is a more diffuse risk. The triumph of a populist right-wing that looks suspiciously at Brussels and that usually attacks the EU and the euro to justify its pressures, will create tensions where Mario Draghi had calmed the situation. Italy is the country that has received the most resources from the NextEU plan and had ceased to be a headache for the European Commission. The flow of new trust that Draghi had created benefited all of southern Europe. [email protected]

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