The increase in the minimum wage to 965 euros per month that the Government intends to undertake with the support of the unions, but not the employers, would have an impact on employment of up to 130,000 jobs, according to Randstad. The president of the ETT study services, Valentín Bote, explained to the media that the range of jobs affected would be between “60,000 and 130,000”. “This figure would include both those that are destroyed and those that are not created,” he explained.
In his opinion, the rise in the SMI could restrict activity. Especially in those communities with the lowest average wages. Specifically, Bote has commented that the increase of fifteen euros “would place several communities with an SMI that would be 70% of the average salary. This could lead to a reduction in activity. ‘
Apart from the increase in the minimum wage, another issue that will mark this end of the year in terms of employment will be the labor reform, where the Executive intends to repeal the most damaging aspects of the 2012 reform. The Randstad study services identifies the labor reform as one of the risks for employment in the last quarter of the year. For example, the Executive proposed in June
eliminate contracts for works and services, a measure that for Randstad would mean “losing half a million jobs”, in addition to which could cause a growth of the shadow economy. “There could be many different realities than what the government wanted,” said Bote.
Randstad today gave his job market predictions for this year. He expects labor activity to continue growing, although it will remain below pre-crisis levels. In terms of affiliation to Social Security, it foresees a growth of 2.3% compared to December 2020. It should be remembered that this section includes those affected by ERTE, which continues to this day above 270,000 affected. The temporary agency company expects the employment rate according to the EPA to rise 2.6%, while that of the national accounts, which is measured by the number of hours worked, would rise 5.1%. For its part, the number of self-employed would rise 1.6% at the end of the year.
In addition, Randstad also places the unemployment rate at 15.3%, two tenths less than in 2020, but far from the 13.8% registered in February 2020. Despite these data, Valentín Bote explained that the context volatility “Makes forecasting difficult”. In fact, he hopes that after
strong GDP correction made today by the INE they have to revise the occupation downwards according to the national accounting.
Regarding the sectors, the president of the Randstad research services has indicated that there are several branches that already exceed pre-crisis levels. Education, health and public employment stand out, where the previous two are not included. He has also highlighted logistics as a catalyst for employment. By contrast, hotels, tourism and commerce will continue to have problems in the coming months.
Apart from the SMI and the labor reform, other risk factors for Randstad that could have an impact on employment would be the possible new waves of Covid, adverse phenomena such as Filomena, the eruption of the La Palma volcano and high inflation (3.3 % in August). In the case of the latter, Bote has indicated that it could slow down the economic recovery and that if the rise in wages (1.5%) It is still far from the levels of the CPI, it should not be ruled out that in the next collective bargaining “we will see upward pressure in the negotiation of wages.”