Fri. Apr 19th, 2019

Political uncertainty threatens to reduce GDP by 5,000 million euros

La incertidumbre política amenaza con reducir el PIB en 5.000 millones de euros

The deceleration in the euro zone and the recent change in the composition of the economic growth in Spain leads the BBVA study service to revise downward the forecast for GDP growth in 2019 and 2020, by fixing them respectively in the 2.2% (compared to the 2.4% projected three months ago) and the 1.9% (one tenth less). Also, this Monday BBVA Research has advanced that the activity advanced in the first quarter of the year of 0.6-0.7%. The report also refers to the impact of economic policy uncertainty in "a year of intense electoral activity." And they estimate that the elections and the difficulty to form a government will subtract two tenths of the GDP growth in 2019. If they increase, they warn, they could reduce the activity by another two tenths this year. In total, up to 5,000 million euros.

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In terms of job creation, they expect the unemployment rate to fall to 12.8% by the end of next year, with 630,000 new jobs in two years. The occupation, they point out, will advance with greater moderation due to the lower momentum of key sectors such as tourism and the automobile sector. Rafael Doménech, responsible for macroeconomic analysis, explained that the peak of enrollment "would have reached" in 2018 with 110,000 vehicles per month, now stands at 103,000 in this first quarter and 96,000 in the long term. "Although the recent slowdown in exports of goods would be the result of the slowdown in the euro zone, it can not be ruled out that some parts of the industry are beginning to suffer capacity restrictions," the new report warns.

BBVA Research has also warned that the housing market may be affected by regulatory changes, recent reforms "that increase the legal uncertainty for the lessor, reduce incentives for large investors to enter and make purchases less attractive in regions with exposure to the tourism sector. " Analysts draw attention to the "numerous" risks outside the borders, from the negotiations between the United States and China, the regulation of the automobile in the EU, as well as the Brexit and the deceleration of the eurozone. Regarding domestic risks, economic policy uncertainty

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