On the blog Paper Stones, the authors Ignacio Jurado, Sebastián Lavezzolo, and Posé Fernández Albertos analyze the data of the CIS and highlight five keys to the reading of the results:
– The participation: Somewhat higher than the one in 2016, close to 75%. However, it advances that still only 58% of those who say they will vote, have decided their vote.
– Indecision and low loyalties: The indecision of the vote is mainly between the right, where more voters still doubt who to vote, consistent with the fierce battle between the three parties.
– The empty Spain: Citizens would clearly improve their results in the smaller districts, while United We can lose ground and be overtaken by Vox.
– Electoral system penalties: Faced with what has been debated in recent weeks, the right does not suffer a large negative impact due to fragmentation.
– The valuation of Abascal: Although the leader of Vox is the worst valued, the CIS leaves a curious fact and is that the voters of the PP give him the approved and those of Citizens qualify him remarkably above the average.
You can read here all the analysis they have done, accompanied by graphics.