Pain

From the words of the president of the Federal Reserve last week at the annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, what has filled the front pages has been that they will continue to raise interest rates even if it hurts. Pain for families and companies seems to be the conclusion of the summer coven of the world's top monetary policymakers. It was certainly too juicy a headline to let slip, but it can be misunderstood. Of course, the tone of the intervention was harsher than some expected. He leaves no doubt as to what his priorities are, and price stability is now number one. And although the latest inflation figures have been positive, they are not positive enough. At this point, inflation expectations must be anchored at all costs. There's no margin of error . However, how far the Fed goes will be determined by price developments and on this front the news is positive. The latest inflation data and the leading indicators on the evolution of prices already point in the right direction. Also, let's not forget, prices can go down as fast as they've gone up, so in the absolutely exceptional circumstances we've experienced in recent times, implausible readings can be given. What measures inflation is the differential of the evolution of prices. MORE INFORMATION The 'Churchillian' speech of the president of the FED sinks the stock markets Rates are going to continue rising –more in the United States than in Europe because it is not the same–. The economy will grow less because it is what they need in the United States to redirect their inflation expectations. And rates, once they stabilize, will take time to go down. Growing below the potential growth of the economy for a season is not at all comparable to the idea that we all have in our heads of what a recession is. There may be some pain, but it doesn't look like it will lead to blood or tears. Europe and the United States are not the same The response from the European Central Bank (ECB) does not have to be the same as that of the Federal Reserve. The big difference is that part of the rise in prices in the United States is due to the overheating of the economy. The best example is the photo of employment there: full employment and still few incentives for people to re-enter the labor market. In Europe, inflation has come mainly from the problems in the supply chains derived from the bottlenecks that caused the very fast, strong and uneven reopening of the economy after the confinement due to the pandemic. And also because of the rise in raw materials lately due to the war in Ukraine. Economies, while recovering, were far from overheated. Monetary policy can do little about bottlenecks or gas price developments. They will continue their course and what has to happen will happen regardless of whether the ECB raises interest rates more or less. How it can act on the other leg of the bank, which is the management of market expectations, is debatable, although this is probably the excuse to continue to apply the brakes or, rather, to take off the accelerator. Thus, although logically the hardening of the message by the Fed weighs something on what we can do in Europe, we must not get carried away. Is not the same. Prices in this area of ​​the world are going to redirect as the pieces of the puzzle fit together again. Stick syrup is not necessary, probably quite the opposite. Rates will go up, but they should go up less than in the United States and prices will end up clamping down sooner because they haven't gone up all the way for the same reasons.

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