Nobody believes the Budgets of Pedro Sánchez

Nobody believes the Budgets of Pedro Sánchez


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The figures collected in the accounts of Pedro Sánchez have been questioned this week by both the Bank of Spain and the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (Airef). The first shot to the Budgets came from the hand of the central entity. In this line, Pablo Hernández de Cos warned on Monday that the Government's forecast of income for this year is subject to "significant risks" and pointed out that the public deficit will reach 2% of GDP, far from the Government's objective to close at 1.3%.

The governor also pointed out that the rise of the Minimum Interprofessional Salary (SMI) -22.3% to 900 euros- will slow down the creation of employment and has urged to put in place measures to compensate for the rise in pensions according to inflation.

Although he did affirm that the growth forecasts included in the macroeconomic table are "coherent" with those of the Bank of Spain itself, he warned that they are subject to significant risks that will lead the institution to revise its own estimates downwards, among which has cited a global economic slowdown or the difficulty of meeting the deficit target.

In addition, Hernández de Cos stressed that the Government's revenue estimates are subject to "significant downside risks" and calculated that the recovery in revenue -discounting the change in the VAT settlement- will be 5.6% instead. of 6.9% collected by the Executive.

For its part, the Airef said earlier this week that it is "unlikely" that the public deficit ends this year at 1.3% of GDP Y calculates that it will deviate up to 2.2%. The president of the Airef, José Luis Escrivá, said during his appearance before the Committee on Budgets of the Congress of Deputies in the best case the central administration will end the year with a deficit of 1% of GDP, when its goal is to 0.3%, due to several factors, among which the national accounting adjustments stand out.

Escrivá added that the institution believes that revenues will be about two tenths lower than the Government estimates and that they will rebound by 7.6% instead of the 9.5% that the Executive expects. Thus, the Airef does not create the forecast of collection and lowers the figure to 2,908 million drenthe 5,654 foreseen by Sanchez.

It also estimates that nothing will be achieved with the increase in the property tax (the Government expects 339 million) and its calculation of the collection by anti-fraud measures (348 million), hydrocarbon tax (503 million) or increase in income tax. for higher incomes (250 million) it is far from that made by the Executive (828, 670 and 328 million, respectively).

Especially significant is the impact of the rise in the minimum wage, which the Government quantifies at 1,279 million and AIReF limits it to between 550 and 650 million.

Calviño defends the accounts

The Government has not been slow to come out to defend their accounts. The Minister of Economy, Nadia Calviño, indicated on Wednesday that it is "normal" for different institutions to have income forecasts different from those included in the Budgets but has affirmed that those of the Ministry of Finance are "realistic and prudent".

Calviño, who attended the Informative Breakfast of the Europa Forum with the Vice President of the Government, Carmen Calvo, stressed that what all institutions, public or private, do coincide is that Spain will maintain a "robust" growth in 2019 and above the average Community and the surrounding countries, and that the Budgets guarantee greater fiscal discipline, since they share that the deficit would be higher if these accounts are not approved.

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