The shortage crisis together with the increase in demand and the rise in energy prices are triggering inflation. Some increases that seem to continue in the coming months, according to the companies. A PWC study reveals that more than 40% of companies they acknowledge that prices will rise in the coming months. A rise of fifteen points compared to the opinion that these companies had in the third quarter.
Among the main reasons for this price increase is the increase in costs for companies. Thus, 72% of companies that plan to raise prices claim that this is the main reason why they will do so, while 22% attribute it to rising wage costs.
Inflation is one of the concerns of the world economy in recent months. In Spain, the rate for November is provisionally at 5.6%, while the US has it at the level highest in the last 40 years, 6.8%. Although most of the experts consulted believe that it is a transitory phenomenon, the panelists warn that the strong increase in prices could end up being structural if it is transferred to wages.
Thus, 48% assures that inflation is the main risk, in the medium term of our economy. Proof of this is that only 6.1% consider that it is under control. However, the most widespread opinion, 38.8%. is that, right now, we are facing a problem, for the moment, transitory. 62.2% estimate that prices will be reduced throughout the first half of next year. In fact, respondents expect inflation to close 2021 in the 3.4% and 2022 at 2.5%. Having said all this, a significant 86.6% of the panelists warn: if high inflation is transferred to wages, it could generate second-round effects and become structural.
Growth forecasts for Spain lowered
Regarding the state of the Spanish economy, executive and business experts lower the growth forecast for the Spanish economy for 2021 from 6.3% in the third quarter to 4.8%. That is to say, a growth lower than the 6.5% expected by the Government. In addition, by 2022 experts also expect growth to be less than that calculated by the Executive: 5.2% compared to 7%.
From the responses of those surveyed, it can be inferred that the economic and financial situation of families has not just improved. 65% believe it is regular and 68% expect it to remain the same in the next three months. This opinion is specified, on the one hand, in the behavior of consumption: those who think it will increase fall by more than forty points and grow by more than twenty, up to 49%, those who assure that it will remain stable in the next six months. And, on the other, in the evolution of home purchases, which will not continue to grow, according to more than half of those surveyed.
Regarding companies, 64.7% rate their economic and financial situation as fair and 31.4% as good, and in the next three months only 25% expect it to improve and 67.6% that stay the same. Looking at the next twelve months, the opinion is more optimistic: 50.5% foresee an increase in productive investment, 45.5% in exports and 54.6% of job creation. Regarding the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar, 60.6% expect that, in December 2022, it will be between 1.1 and 1.2%.
Finally, the panelists have not altered much their opinions on the evolution of the world economy with respect to the previous consensus. 35.9% rate it as good and 59% as fair. Of course, those who think it will get better fall from 73.8% to 29.1% and those who think it will stay the same grow from 20.6% to 56.3%. Regarding the risks that condition the growth of the world economy, those associated with the effects of the pandemic and uncertainty due to outbreaks are the most important, according to 47% of those surveyed, followed by risks related to deficits and debt. public.