Macron, before the scene of a disaster in the municipal



If the forecasts are fulfilled, the party of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, will suffer in the municipalities of this month a strong electoral setback that will confirm that he lacks territorial implantation and that, two years after the presidential elections, his re-election is not a piece of cake.

Different analysts consulted by Efe consider that, although next Sunday and the next the French go to local elections, the result will also be read at national level, and everything indicates that it will not be very favorable to the current tenant of the Elysium.

"If La República En Marcha (LREM, Macron's party) does not conquer any major city, the disaster will be capitalized," says Sciences Po professor Bruno Cautrès.

Virtually discarded the triumph of its candidates in Paris and Marseille, the two major cities of the country, the focus is located in two municipalities: Lyon, where the first-time macronist and former socialist mayor Gérard Collomb has options to be re-elected, and Le Havre, the fief of the Prime Minister, Édouard Philippe, who stepped forward and is a candidate.

In this second case, says analyst Franz-Olivier Giesbert, "if he is not elected, he would be forced to resign from his post and that would generate a government crisis."

Other ministers also opt for mayorships and, although Macron has said that his continuity in the Executive does not depend on the result, an electoral stumbling block would detract from them legitimacy, he adds.

As much as from the Elysium the national dimension is subtracted from the municipal ones, there are many voices that consider that they will mark a turning point in the legislature and that Macron can take advantage to give his action a greater social and ecological dimension that he cannot continue leading Philippe, a politician from the right.

The current prime minister was already mayor of the city where the Seine poured its waters into the Atlantic when he was appointed to lead the Executive in May 2017. In 2014 he won the position in the first round and now the polls predict that he will have to fight until the end and that his election is not assured if the left and the ecologists join forces and the extreme right remains in the second.

OTHER CONQUERTS NEEDED

The victory at Le Havre would not be enough for LREM, according to Giesbert, who believes that the Macronist party "needs other conquests to save up appearances."

"Otherwise," says the former director of the weekly "Le Point", "it would be very difficult not to recognize a second consecutive electoral defeat after the European one" last year, when it was surpassed by the extreme right as the most voted force.

Lyon, third city of the country, can serve as consolation. Collomb enjoys in the third city of the country a great predicament after 17 years at the head of a municipality, only interrupted by a parenthesis of a year and a half at the head of the Ministry of Interior, which left in October 2018 due to discrepancies with Macron but also to Go back to your fief.

The veteran local baron, one of the most prominent livelihoods of Macron's triumph in 2017, faces a complex electoral panorama, because his return to the city raised blisters that resulted in a dissident list that holds much predicament.

To this is added the thrust of environmentalists, who step on the heels of the mayor, which leads the final result to a game of alliances after the first round and, above all, post-election, in one of the three cities of the country, next to Paris and Marseille, where the mayor is elected by district councilors.

A similar scenario appears in Strasbourg, where the alliances between environmentalists and leftists in the second round can deprive the Macronista candidate of the mayor's office, well positioned in the polls in the first round.

MACRON, IN THE MARGINS OF THE REFRIGERATION

Despite this uncertainty, Macron has not been involved in the municipalities, with the risk of leaving his troops helpless, but preventing his figure from being spotted by the foreseeable debacle.

In Paris, after the replacement of his candidate at the last minute by the scandal of the dissemination of sexual images, LREM sent the Minister of Health, Agnès Buzyn, who does not reach 20% of the intention to vote, in a city in the that Macron swept the presidential.

Buzyn, who also faces a dissident list led by the mathematician Cédric Villani, expelled from the Macron party, appears in the polls away from the outgoing socialist Anne Hidalgo (26%) and the conservative Rachida Dati (23%), which will be played the symbolic Mayor's Office of the capital.

Worse things happen in Marseille, where the macronista candidate does not reach 10% of the voting intentions and lacks options, as in other large cities, such as Montpellier, Lille or Nantes.

In Toulouse and Nice, Macron's party chose not to present a candidate and support the re-election of two right-wing figures, a strategy he refused to accept in Bordeaux, where his candidate, a figure very close to the president, overcomes the hair 10% of the voting intentions.

NEGATIVE DYNAMICS

"The wound of the municipal can be profound, especially because it affects the negative dynamics in which the president has entered since the appearance of the 'yellow vests'," says Giesbert.

"The president will verify that his only electoral value is himself," says Cautrès, who believes that these elections, "can also give hope to the opposition to defeat him in two years."

Although the political scientist believes that the real race for presidential elections will open in the regional next year, that some "barons" on the right have been set as a springboard to the Elysium.

This is the case of Xavier Bertrand, president of the Northern region, and Valérie Pecresse, at the head of that of Paris.

Luis Miguel Pascual

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