LaLiga Santander 2019 - 20: The risks of the 'new' football in the pandemic
LaLiga Santander 2019 - 20Predictive mathematical analysis prepared by Ripoll and De Prado and Biyectiva
Lat the appearance ofthe COVID pandemic 19has affected the whole of society and how could it be less also thedevelopment of sports activities, both individually and recreationally as well as professional competitions.
In the present studywe developed a predictive mathematical model based on 11 games being played in 36 daysin the context of a controlled pandemic.
We intend to make a prediction about the incidence of injuries using our algorithm. The objective isalert the football communityso that the appropriate measures are taken and as far as possiblecorrect this increased injury rate to protect the health of players.
DEVELOPING
Using the files they provide usFIFA and UEFAcollected during the last 20 years, as well as those from the archive of theBRAND newspaperand from our own institution, led byDoctors Núñez, Quesada and Gómez:
one.We establish a base rate for bothteams accustomed to playing two games per week(international competition) as forteams that don't play them regularly(national competition).
2.We apply to this base rate the known corrective factors that we have precisely determined, such as:
-Effect of long confinement period.
-Psychological stress.
-Increase in the number of matches.
-Loss of the protective factor of well-structured training.
3. We also consider factors that are difficult to quantify, such asthe COVID effect, thetemperature and humidity, theinjury history of each playerand the'facilities' of each club. There is currently no bibliography on these factors that fits our model.
SPORTS STOP
Thereincorporation to competitive activityIn this situation, it presents several elements that are unprecedented. First,It is the longest period in history in which footballers have not been able to exercise normally, with the consequentloss of muscle function and cardio-respiratory function.
Second,impaired proprioception and coordination. The fact of having beenseven weeks without exercising the specific gestures of football means a deterioration in the automatic control that the brain exercises over the locomotor system.
Third,stress. Players are going to be subjected to aintense psychological stress, conditioned by playing in a social context of pandemicAnd, in addition to this, in these six weeks of competition they will decide both their personal future and that of the teams to which they belong.The literature in this regard puts the increase in injury risk for this factor at 5%..
LITTLE RECOVERY
The medical literature suggests aincreased injury rate when players have less than four days of recovery between games. The injury rate is increased by this fact, as quantified by the medical literature,32% for muscle injuries and 9% for general injuries.
LESS WORKOUTS
The alteration of the rhythm of the competition that would mean playing 11 games in five weekswould consequently modify the training schedule, which would entail aloss of the protective effect they exert on the number of injuries. This fact would affect a4.5% increase in injury rate.
NON-QUANTIFIABLE FACTORS
Isthe COVID factor. It is a parameter that is difficult to quantify,as the evolution of the pandemic itself shows. We will try to make an approximation dividing it into two sections:
one.Aftermath after passing the COVID
TO.Alterations in respiratory capacityThe medical literature figures one10-30% decrease in the physiological conditions of respiratory capacity in players who have suffered from COVID, which is not necessary to highlight that it will influence your sports performance.
B.Cardiovascular effects. Changes in the effect of coagulation andincrease in cardiac pathologies still to be defined, which could be exacerbated with the practice of a strenuous sport.
C.Neurological effects. Loss of smell and taste are best known, but medical literature pointseffects on the nervous systemStill to be specified that the investigation will be nuanced.
D.Immunity. The effect of strenuous physical activity actsreducing player immunity, which could make them more susceptible to contagion.
2.Possible infections
The characteristics of the virus andits high infective capacity index suggests that in the course of these six weeks some player may be infected in the sports or family environment. It is the responsibility of the health authorities to draw up regulations in this regard to regulate this type of contingency.
All of the aforementioned could be interpreted as a deterrent to resume competition, but we must not lose the reference thatthe football competition would take place in a context of a country subject to similar risksyes, if not higher in some sectors of the population.The footballer performs a job that in the current pandemic situation is subject to risks that are shared by other sectors of society.
Thetemperature and humidityare factors that are not quantifiable in the injury rate, butmakes physical activity more strenuous. From 29 degrees and 75% humidity increases the risk, and above 32 degrees it is not recommended to compete.
A brief overview of the humidity and temperature rates of the months of July and August in Spain is enough to deduce thatthis factor will have a high influence on the development of the competition.
'FACILITIES'
The technical means, human resources and medical services of each club will have a significant impact on the injury rate and on the recovery times of the same.
To calculate the number of expected injuries in Spanish soccer teams we have started from ainjury base rate supported by numerous reports of the last 20 years by UEFA and FIFA. Likewise, we have considered the data from national and international epidemiological studies and the archives of the MARCA newspaper.
We estimate that the period on which we base our working hypotheses consists of four weeks of training and, subsequently,11 days of competition spread over six weeks. During this period of approximately two and a half months, avery important increase in the number of games with respect to the usual rhythm in almost all teams. Likewise,the recovery time between said matches will be reduced and it will be played in a higher than normal psychological stress environment. Let's not forget thatthis competition will be held after a long period of detraining (seven weeks), which constitutes a totally unprecedented event in the history of football.
All these elements have been quantified on the basis of various medical investigations and represent an increase in the rate of injuries over what would occur under normal conditions (medical literature is attached).
Based on these studies, it has been established thatthe increase in injury risk derived from the long period of confinement is around 20%. It is estimated thatthe increase in the risk of injuries derived from the psychological stress that players will face is of the order of 5%. By last,the protective effect of training, which will necessarily lose its usual programming and will be significantly reduced, with whichwill increase the injury rate in a quantified term of 4.5%.
Let's not forget, of course,that increasing matches for a short period of time in non-used teams will also substantially increase the risk of injury. These teams will bring their injury rates closer to that of teams that have to play cross-weekly matches frequently:teams with international competitions vs teams with national competition.
For all these reasons, during the remaining period of the League the teams used to playing a weekly game will see an increase in thenumber of expected injuriesgoing from11.4 (4.45 of which will be muscular, 1.94 ligamentous and 5 of the rest) to 17.12 (6.67 of which will be muscular, 2.91 ligamentous and 7.54 of the rest). This supposesan increase of more than 50%in the number of foreseeable injuries under normal conditions during the same period of time.
Compared to teams with players used to participating in European competitions, the increase in the number of injuries expected would be somewhat less.These teams would go from presenting 12.53 injuries(4.88 of which would be muscular, 2.13 ligamentous and 5.52 of the rest)to 17.46 injuries(6.81 of which muscular, 2.97 ligamentous and 7.68 of the rest).40% increase.
As can be seen, the number of total injuries in both groups would be approximately the same,between 17 and 18 injuries throughout this period. What changes is the increase in the percentage of injury of one group with respect to the other.The alteration of the injury rates will probably be perceived more among the Second and First teams not used to playing during the week.
INCREASE IN THE INJURY RATE
If the federative model were applied by extending the remaining 11 days over eight complete weeks (instead of 6), it is expected that the detrimental effects derived from the increase in party density would disappear. In consecuense,the injury rate of the teams would be increased by only 25%, both for teams used to playing in European competitions and those that do not.
