Thu. Nov 21st, 2019

La Airef forecasts that Spain will grow 0.65% in the second quarter

The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) provides that the PIB Spanish advanced 0.65% in the second quarter, so the growth of the economy it could have moderated a tenth between April and June, while estimating that it should moderate to 0.6% in the third quarter.

This is clear from the latest forecasts of increase of GDP in real time generated by the Mipred model of the Fiscal Authority, after incorporating the last published information of large companies corresponding to the month of May. According to these latest data, the quarter-on-quarter GDP rate for the second quarter of 2019 would be 0.65%, below the 0.7% recorded in the first quarter of the year, according to the final data of the National Institute of Statistics (INE)


AIReF has been reducing its forecast for the third quarter little by little

Regarding the estimate over the third quarter, AIReF has been gradually reducing its forecast, until now calculating a 0.6% GDP advance between July and September. The previous forecast of AIReF pointed to an advance of the economy of 0.67% and of 0.6% in the second and third quarters. In any case, the AIReF thermometer shows a stabilization signal in the second quarter of 2019 compared to the previous quarter

For its part, the acting Minister of Economy and Business, Nadia Calviño, announced on Thursday that the Government will revise upward the GDP growth forecast for this year, currently at 2.2%, in the next macroeconomic picture.


The Government prepares a rise in the growth estimate

In addition, the European Commission has revised its growth estimate for Spain two tenths upwards in 2019, when is confident that the economy will expand at a rate of 2.3%, practically twice as much as the advance of 1.2% projected for the euro zone and one tenth above what was foreseen by the Executive.

At the same time, it has maintained its evolution forecast of 1.9% unchanged in 2020, in line with the Government and half a point above the average for the euro area. For Calviño, the upward revision of the forecasts by several agencies confirms the improvement of the economic perception and the confidence of the financial markets, discarding that the political situation is having a "negative impact" on the economy.

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