Yes there are candidates who have not given their soul to the polls and their speeches do not derive from stats is because the numbers predict a defeat. They isolate themselves from percentages of intention of vote and cling to perceptions. Electoral sociology becomes a matter of faith and messages are stained Holy Week. Albert Rivera recommend to Quim Torra Y Carles Puigdemont to "pray" so that Pedro Sánchez follow in the Moncloa, and they -also Oriol Junqueras- They pray that Sanchez does not join Rivera.
With the numbers in hand, the PP Y Citizens They should swell the ranks of penitents and bearers and sneak into the procession of the Christ of the Legion. The survey of GAD 3 for The vanguard detects a transfer of 20% of votes from the PP to VOX, and more than 15% of Citizens, which explains the turn to the right of Rivera.
In the independence movement, more earthly excuses are sought. Fill some chairs more or less in the same square in which your partner acted can breathe a hope that the surveys deny and that will not be lost until the scrutiny dictates sentence. It is these "data" that keep the game alive between JxCat Y ERC because the combat has stopped being balanced in the polls. The party of Junqueras already only competes with the PSOE in Catalonia, while those of Puigdemont can find consolation in filling an auditorium with Jaume Alonso-Cuevillas as new rock-star
Actually, the partners of Government they do not dispute the same race. Today's survey reveals that ERC has an intention to vote as consolidated as the PSOE-above 73% - while 32.5% of former voters of the PDECat they could now seek refuge in the republican ranks.
The Junqueras head team has taken precautions so that the tragic week of the 21-D campaign does not happen again and instead of entering into a clash with its partners in the Government, it prefers to test the stock exchange of votes of the commons when raising a referendum on the monarchy.
But the misgivings do not disappear. JxCat can only improve its results at the expense of ERC and, although there is implicit agreement not to search for the melee, the zero risk does not exist. Especially because the electoral argument of the Puigdemont is to claim a unity of the independence that does not exist and whose ultimate goal is to feed the European candidacy of expresident in competition with that of Junqueras.
The other legs of the post-convergent argument pass, first to present themselves as a force of exclusive loyalty to Catalonia while ERC weaves alliances with Bildu in the Congress and the European Parliament. And then, for displaying a firm speech with Laura Borràs, although she does not just marry the messages of the imprisoned candidates.
Are the red lines to support an investiture flexible or insurmountable? The answer is imbued with Holy Week, polls and faith. Faith that pro-independence deputies are decisive, something that surveys only draw as a secondary option.
According to the Republicans, the effect of the strategy of JxCat is zero among its voters in the metropolitan area but maintaining the profile of itself against Puigdemont costs more than justifying "Vic en amunt ...". JxCat no longer cares about winning ERC on 28-A. Its goal is to match the results of 2016 (eight seats) to silence moderate criticisms of the PDECat, and to confront the municipal and European May with enough oxygen to maintain the legitimist story of Puigdemont.
The electoral perspectives of JxCat warn even in the Palau de la Generalitat. A bad result of the political brand of the president in the current electoral carousel can reaffirm the refusal to convene in Catalonia. However, they admit, the Government has a problem of credibility and in the Parliament it is condemned to a situation of blockade that only an election can correct. "We can pay the payroll, but what else?" Says a senior official. Despite Torra, for some the decision will be "inevitable" after the sentence. Even more if the surveys overcome the faith and become a reality.