Ignacio Marco-Gardoqui: It cannot last


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Vladimir Putin is a great and dangerous puppet who leads a wounded giant, with an economy sustained by its large reserves of all kinds of raw materials, not only energy, but weakened by its own internal chaos and its unfading administrative corruption. With his pride intact and the permanent memory of a glorious past (?) That he will not return. As if that were not enough, he exercises his power in a country without freedom of the press or democratic opposition, a mix that enables the adoption of any initiative, however insane it may be.

Its decision to invade Ukraine is going to have devastating immediate effects because it is going to exacerbate the tensions that the Western economy was already suffering, by hampering supplies (in terms of prices and

logistics), encourage inflation and distort the always hysterical financial markets. But it is difficult for them to be durable. Russia cannot occupy Ukraine permanently. It cannot be deployed on the ground, in a large country, with a population with a strong anti-Russian feeling (it is the bad thing to remember) and facing an opposition that will be strongly supported in the Western media. Here we know how to perfectly execute the cowardly game of throwing the stone and hiding the hand.

So it will occupy more territory than the disputed Donbas, to demonstrate its strength, to make clear the inaction of a Europe without leadership and to later be able to exchange the withdrawal of what is occupied against the elimination of the imposed sanctions. These will always be timid. In the first place, because the EU depends as much or more on Russia than Russia depends on the EU, and just as the Russians will not protest - or their protest will not be heard - because of the arrival of dead soldiers, in Europe we are not even willing to be cold in winter due to lack of gas.

While this is happening, get ready to see falls in stock prices - the dance started yesterday and will last for a while -, to withstand increases in gas, to suffer increases in premiums that cover all kinds of risks, from commercial to exchange and transportation. And sit back to watch the spectacle of a Europe paralyzed by its unmanageable internal complexity, by our lack of courage and by the greater importance we give to our interests over our principles. If we still have them... Compare the television intervention of a majestic and threatening Putin, announcing the invasion, with the photo of the Council of the EU, which every day looks more like a subway car at rush hour.

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