June 19, 2021

Housing breaks the brake in 2020 | Economy

Thus, the housing market is played in 2020. The business of buying and selling must be able to attract the young buyer looking for his first home. Without this plaintiff, the sector will suffer to reach the production of 150,000 newly built houses that real estate developers have in their sights. At the moment, everything indicates that the activity of 2019 will be far from that brand, although it will exceed that of the previous year, when Spain returned to build more than 100,000 properties for the first time since the real estate recovery.

The rental of houses will also move in turbulent waters. Prices continue to rise in many cities and the agreement for a coalition government between PSOE and Podemos is committed to enabling price limits, a measure that does not like in the sector of companies with rental housing because they believe it will contract the offer. With these uncertainties the new year starts in the housing market, of which thousands of people who ask the same questions are pending.

Price increase forecast

of housing

Estimate of rising housing prices in populations of more than 50,000 inhabitants in 2020.

Interannual price evolution

of housing in Spain

Source: Tinsa Digital and Standard & Poor’s.

Price increase forecast

of housing

Estimate of rising housing prices in populations of more than 50,000 inhabitants in 2020.

Interannual evolution of housing prices

in Spain

The rise in the price of housing will be cut in half in less than five years.

Source: Tinsa Digital and Standard & Poor’s.

Forecast of increase in housing prices

Estimate of rising housing prices in populations of more than 50,000 inhabitants in 2020.

Las Palmas

from Gran Canaria

Interannual evolution of the price of housing in Spain

The rise in the price of housing will be cut in half in less than five years.

Source: Tinsa Digital and Standard & Poor’s.

Housing breaks the brake in 2020

To look for the answers, different representatives of the real estate sector – consultants, appraisers, portals, promoters and associations – analyze the situation that the housing will have in 2020. These are its main conclusions:

Is another crisis coming?

At this point there is total consensus and none of the people consulted sees a near recession. “We are very far from entering another crisis in the real estate sector,” sums up Arturo Díaz, executive director of the Residential division of Savills Aguirre Newman. For this expert, the Spanish market is going “Towards a situation of stability with more moderate growth in prices and somewhat more logical sales rates ”.

Match that vision Nick Wride, director of Living & Alternatives of JLL. “None of our studies predicts [una crisis]However, we do appreciate less accelerated growth, ”he says.

Forecasts for 2020

Flats.com The real estate portal considers that the sales prices of the flats will grow in this 2020 between 2% and 4%. Rentals will do something else according to your forecasts: between 4% and 6%.

Photo house. The portal of the Norwegian group Adevinta is somewhat more conservative and notes that the sale price will rise on average between 1% and 2%. The rent will be around 2.5% and mortgages will be 5%.

Association of Promoter Builders of Spain. For APCE, the employers of construction companies, sales prices during this year will increase from a minimum of 3.5% to a maximum of 5%.

Moody’s The rating agency believes that the Spanish real estate market is the most expensive housing in Europe over the next twelve months. Its forecast for 2020 places the growth of sales prices around 5.5%. It is also the highest percentage among all the companies and organizations that have prepared forecasts.

Standard & Poor’s. This risk rating agency lowers the rivalry’s prediction by one and a half points and points out that housing for sale will be increased by 3.5% in Spain in 2020. In addition, it considers that the slowdown of the market will be lengthened and provides for 2021 a price growth of 3%.

Bankinter The bank notes that the sale prices of the houses will grow between 1% and 2% over the next 12 months. As for Euribor, the benchmark for most mortgages, it believes that it will remain negative and will be between -0.27% and -0.17%.

Rafael Gil, director of the Studies service of the Tinsa appraiser, talks about a “flat evolution” of the sector in line with the economic growth of Spain and with wage and labor forecasts. And he warns: “Obviously, a behavior different from these would affect the real estate market.”

“The promoter business is cyclical and, although it may suffer some specific correction, this will not be as in 2008,” says David Martínez, CEO of Aedas Homes. Also the president of the Association of Builders of Spain (APCE), Juan Antonio Gómez-Pintado, recalls that in the future “there will be crises, which are natural economic cycles, but for the moment not in the short term.” For Borja Garcia-Egotxeaga, CEO of Neinor Homes “in general, we have a strong, solid sector with sufficient demand.”

Will the purchase price go up?

The president of the employer considers that this question “will depend a lot on the geographical areas.” “On average, in buying and selling in Spain [el crecimiento de precios] it will be between 3.5% and 5% ”, specifies Gómez Pintado. In the CBRE consultancy they lower that forecast slightly and estimate that it will be around “between 2% and 3%,” according to its national director of Residential and Land, Samuel Population.

In general, all the consulted analysts who give percentages move in those parameters (between 2% and 5%), which Sandra Daza, general director of Gesvalt, synthesizes when pointing out that prices “will maintain the upward line of the last months, although more moderately ”.

Nor are some specific descents ruled out: “Madrid and Barcelona seem to have reached, with three or four years in advance, the maximum of their cycle,” says Juan Fernández-Aceytuno, CEO of the Appraisal Society. Arturo Díaz, of Savills, abounds that “some areas of Madrid and Barcelona could adjust prices slightly”.

And the rent?

“The main national markets do not reflect much more upward travel and an increase in supply is necessary,” says Samuel Population, of CBRE. Javier Rodríguez Heredia, responsible for the rental commission of the Association of Realtors with Rental Assets (Asipa), believes that “what is essential to level prices is that there is a greater supply of housing” for what demands “legal certainty that attract institutional savings, which is the only engine that can create this kind of affordable offer in the volume that Spain needs ”.

As with the home for sale, again you have to look at the Catalan capital to see possible declines. “The road of price contraction that Barcelona has started is possible that we see it in other cities during 2020”, illustrates the director of Studies and Training of Fotocasa, Ismail Kardoudi.

When is the best time to buy?

Most analysts point out that, due to the expected price curve, there will be no big differences. “Speculating with the exact moment of the purchase does not make much sense because it is unlikely that prices will fall,” says Jorge Pérez Leza, CEO of Metrovacesa. “The best moment always depends on the client and the asset to buy,” says Nuria Serranos, director of Residencial Obra Nueva y Piso at BNP Paribas Real Estate.

Sandra Daza, from Gesvalt, points out instead that “the best time to buy a home would be to do it during the first months of the year”, considering that the Euribor is still negative, the European Central Bank has delayed the rise in rates and prices , although moderately, they will continue to rise.

Of the same opinion are Gómez-Pintado – “I would do it as soon as possible”, indicates the president of the employers’ association of promoters – and Arturo Díaz, of Savills, who introduces a new variable: “If it is a habitual residence the answer would be already. If we talk about buying a home for investment, I would wait for the new Government to be formed and to understand the housing policies that will be applied. ”

Nick Wride of JLL points out that his decision “would depend on the location” of the house he was going to buy. And the CEO of Aedas Homes, David Martínez, insists on the importance of not setting times: “I would study the market, compare the offer and, if I found the home that fit my needs and budget, I would take the step of buying.”

Will it improve young people’s access to housing?

That young people can emancipate themselves and access to their first home is the weak point of this industry, which quickly seeks the formula to recover this group suffocated by low wages and the inability to save. “The promoters must be able to put affordable housing on the market and from the financial sector they must provide financing for the payment of the entrance,” says the CEO of Aedas Homes.

Efforts focus on the biggest pitfall, and this is that many young people have the ability to pay, but they don’t have savings to meet the initial 20% that the purchase requires. Metrovacesa works in the same line. “We are looking for these formulas to facilitate the payment of the entrance and also construction techniques that reduce costs or delivery times, or types of products that meet the demand of young people,” argues Jorge Pérez de Leza, CEO of Metrovacesa.

Regarding rent, companies are promoting turnkey projects that will be used for leasing. “Whether in one mode or another, we hope that 2020 is the year of the return of young people to the market. Some will rent and others will buy a first home in the emerging areas in the second ring of the main metropolitan areas, which will be more accessible, ”concludes Martínez.

Searching for solutions is already a priority. But the attempts could be broken if there is no collaboration from the public administration and financial institutions. “I don’t think unilateral solutions are viable. The main obstacle has to do with the amount of initial savings that is needed and that is where we are exploring more alternatives, although the solution is not simple, ”says José Ignacio Morales Plaza, CEO of Vía Célere.

The president of the employer recognizes that “public-private collaboration plans are being implemented” and that this will be a way to solve part of the problem. And, in addition, they are considering an access program like the one in England, called help to buy (purchase assistance), which consists of the Government’s provision of a guarantee – prior study of the ability to pay – that facilitates the payment of the entrance of the house.

“Credit institutions, in the hands of insurance companies, are working on new formulas that facilitate the access of young people. An example of this collaboration is to extend mortgage credit insurance, increasing the amount of the mortgage up to 95%, ”says Sandra Daza, of Gesvalt.

The CEO of the Appraisal Society, indicates that “the problem is the production system in general” and therefore the solution “must come by improving the conditions and competitiveness of wages.”

There are also proposals to facilitate rentals. “We have 10 times less social housing than our European neighbors; we must design a policy of protected housing in active and realistic rent, a stable legal environment, and be clear that institutional savings is the only one that can finance this mismatch ”, insists Javier Rodríguez Heredia, of Asipa.

What to look for in 2020?

“Technology is revolutionizing and transforming the sector,” says Nuria Serranos of BNP Paribas, who adds another important milestone: “We cannot lose sight of sustainability. In 2020, the European energy efficiency directive for buildings is established, which establishes that, by the end of the year, all new construction constructions must have practically zero energy consumption ”.

The CEO of Vía Célere also has an impact on this aspect, which relates to another relatively new trend in the sector. “We must continue working on the industrialization of the construction process,” says Morales Plaza.

Together with sustainability, Ismail Kardoudi, from the Fotocasa portal, mentions the rental. “It is necessary a firm commitment to the creation of a large public housing rental park for which start-up time and resources are needed,” said the expert. Nick Wride remembers in that section a novelty, since this year they will reach the market “a considerable number of multifamily homes for rent, what is known as build-to-rent [construido para alquilar]” The JLL expert says that these first promotions will allow “to check their acceptance by the market”.

Another issue that we should be aware of, says Rafael Gil, of Tinsa, is “for the purposes of Brexit on coastal markets.” Pedro Soria, Chief Commercial Officer of the same appraiser, asks to pay “attention to the measures that the new Government can promote in housing and investment matters”.

For Fernando Encinar, head of studies at Idealista, “any fiscal change that pressures the middle classes or investors and any regulatory change that entails, for example, a control of rental prices, will have a negative effect”. In sum, Encinar asks for “clear rules and legal certainty”. A very shared desire in the sector that Samuel Population, of CBRE, summarizes by stating that “it will be relevant to have political stability and measures that encourage the economy, employment and housing production.”

Political wishes for the new year

Housing starts the year also with turmoil in the political sphere. The government agreement reached by PSOE and Podemos devotes a considerable part to this matter, with a commitment to regulate the price hikes of rents (something that the opposition has strongly rejected in the past), improve the public housing stock and focus it primarily to the lease. Before knowing the content of that pact, EL PAÍS asked politicians of the five most voted parties in the last general elections (Vox did not attend the request) a wish for the new year. This is what politicians ask the Magi in this 2020:

Beatriz Corredor (PSOE): “By 2020 we hope to see the State Housing Law approved, which is already prepared to be presented in the Courts, so that the right to housing as a public service of general interest is effective. In addition, we must continue taking measures to promote access to rent, especially for young people. ”

Ana Zurita (Popular Party) “That there is legal certainty, flexibility in the supply of housing both in property and in rent, especially for young people, and simplification of bureaucratic obstacles so that all citizens have access to decent housing at affordable prices. We are also committed to housing and territorial planning as pillars of the fight against climate change. More efficient homes with lower energy consumption ”.

Pilar Garrido (United We Can): “From United We can fight for 2020 to be a year in which effective progress is made in guaranteeing the right to decent housing and ensuring that access to affordable housing and security in its enjoyment are a reality in our country. For this, it is urgent to end the speculation about a good like housing. ”

Edmundo Bal (Citizens): “Stop being an impossible mission for young people who want to do it [emanciparse], that families pay less for the price of electricity and, ultimately, make it easier to rent and buy a home at affordable prices in our country. ”


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