The Spanish economy has surprised with a increase better than expected during the first half of this year, especially during the first three months. This acceleration leads to European Comission (EC) to modify upwards its forecasts for Spain, placing the growth for 2019 in a 2.3%, two tenths above his May calculations. By 2020, Brussels maintains the previous forecast, that is, a deceleration that places it at 1.9%.
The reasons for this acceleration of growth are given by a slight reduction in imports and real estate investment that compensates for the weak increase in consumption. According to the calculations of Brussels, the first quarter Spain grew by 0.7%, a figure that will be reduced to 0.6% in the second and 0.5% in the rest of the year.
It is expected that Spanish exports and imports will recover, but less than anticipated
In a context of global trade tensions, Spanish exports and imports are expected to recover, but less than anticipated in May. Unemployment will continue to fall, which, together with the increase in salaries, will allow higher incomes and an increase in the families' saving capacity. Inflation, which reached 1.7% in 2018, will fall to 0.9% this year to reach 1.2% in 2020, basically as a result of changes in the price of oil.
Spain will continue to grow well above the euro zone, whose GDP will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.4% next year. In 2020, it represents a slight reduction, one tenth, over the forecasts for May.
The start of the year in the eurozone has been better than expected thanks to the increase in car sales, and some fiscal measures that increased the income of families in some member states. The negative part is the risks derived from external factors, such as commercial tensions and political uncertainty, which continue to weigh down confidence in the manufacturing sector, which is the most exposed to international trade. On the other hand, the risk of a Brexit without agreement also persists.
Contrasts in the growth between the center and east Europe and Germany or Italy
"All European economies continue to grow this year and the next, even if the robust growth of Central and Eastern Europe contrasts with the slowdown in Germany and Italy, "said the vice president of the European Commission, Valdis Dombrovskis. It refers specifically to a German economy that remains in a growth of 0.5% this year with the forecast of recovering to 1.4% in 2020. On the side of Italy, to whom the European Commission has just lifted the threat of opening an excessive deficit procedure, its economy will grow only one tenth this year, and seven in 2020.
The Commissioner of Economy, Pierre Moscovici, highlights the European growth in a difficult global scenario and calls for "intensifying efforts to strengthen the resistance of our economies and the euro area as a whole".
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