The Spanish economy will not fully recover next year from the impact of the coronavirus on activity and employment. Funcas economists Raymond Torres and María Jesús Fernández have calculated that the most probable scenario, in the event that containment measures are limited to March and April to later gradually relax them, it is a recovery in the form of a U and not a V as the Government sought, so that in the first semester the great fall will come. With these wickerwork, Funcas calculates that GDP will fall 3% in 2020 to pick up a rebound of 2.8% in 2021.
In the first quarter of 2020 the fall will be -2.2% compared to the previous one, being -7.7% in the second quarter and linking an increase of 9.2% in the third quarter and 0.2% in the fourth. The reason that the recovery is U-shaped and not V-shaped is that in sectors such as tourism the return to normality will be relatively slow.
Funcas warns of the limitations of its estimate due to the great uncertainty caused by the disease, but cites the experiences in China or South Korea as precedents to try to forecast what will happen in Spain. «This work is based on the hypothesis of a time-limited health crisisSo that the containment measures could begin to relax before the summer, both in Spain and in the rest of Europe and the United States. Therefore, it is considered that the greatest impact will be concentrated in the months of March and April, gradually mitigating in the following months, so that in the third quarter the activity would return to normal, “he says.
Only the employment that will cease to be generated for the summer campaign, Funcas calculates, amounts to 400,000 jobs. This scenario, however, is very preliminary, the authors warn. “Of course, if new viral outbreaks appeared during the summer or in the months that followed, the economy would suffer and the rebound effect would be delayed», Sentence the article.
The Government’s plan, along the lines of Europe
The economic plan that the Government has deployed is not as ambitious as those of Germany or France but is above that of Italy. The Government announced 100,000 million euros in public guarantees that are equivalent to 8% of GDP compared to 12.4% of France, 14.9% of United Kingdom or 16% of Germany, but above 0.9% of Italy.
Regarding the budgetary impact of measures such as incentives in the form of contributions and approved unemployment benefits, he estimates that in Spain will have an impact of 1.6% of GDP, some 20,000 million, compared to 0.4% of Germany, 0.8% of Italy, 1.9% of France or 2.3% of United Kingdomor.
12,000 million euros more in public debt
The great sacrifice of the crisis will be the state of the public coffers, which will show a deficit of 5.5% of GDP this year and 4.1% in 2021, compared to 2.5% in which they estimate ended 2019. The debt will go to highs not seen for a century: it will reach 102.6% in 2020 and 103.3% in 2021: ten points above that which would have been registered without any crisis, that is, 12,000 million euros more.