The foreign policy of Brazil in the Government that Jair Bolsonaro assumes on January 1 will seek an approach to the United States and open the doors to free trade, but will threaten the efforts made multilaterally by the country in areas such as the environment and human rights.
In line with the thinking of US President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro has criticized the efforts of the Paris Agreement to reduce global warming, environmental policies that slow down agribusiness and economic bloc alliances such as Mercosur.
His support for Israel and his desire to move the Brazilian embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, as Trump did with his country's, can put the chicken trade between Brazil and the Arab countries at stake, as he warned. the Ministry of Agriculture itself.
However, a mantle of expectation prevents to visualize which will be the real orientation of the future president for the external subjects.
Although Bolsonaro has reiterated several times that his foreign policy will not be marked by an "ideological connotation", Brazil will move from South-South cooperation, driven by his left predecessors Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, to a less rhetorical approach and more results, focused on free trade and getting closer to the US, according to analysts consulted by Efe.
In the commercial issue, although Bolsonaro wants to take advantage of Trump's sympathies, he can not forget China, a nation that since 2009 became the country's main trading partner and that remained firm during the crisis that Brazil suffered in 2015 and 2016 , when its GDP retracted an accumulated of almost 7 percentage points.
Negotiations with economic blocs such as Mercosur or the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which, according to Bolsonaro, are confabulated under socialist precepts, are also in the sights of the president-elect for conditions that for the future Government They are "disadvantageous", especially for agriculture.
Although the far-right sees these agreements as an obstacle to agribusiness, for the ambassador and adviser of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI) Luis Alfredo Lima Graça the issue is not so simple.
According to the diplomat explained to Efe, agriculture, which is the main source of income of Brazil, is very badly treated in bilateral free trade agreements, and to access new markets and achieve better conditions, we must emphasize the multilateral, where negotiate from a common external item.
Although the United States is not Brazil's main trading partner, Bolsonaro wants to open markets with the northern country and strengthen bilateral trade.
To do this, he sought a squire related to his expectations, Ernesto Araujo, who, in addition to being the appointed chancellor, declared himself to be a profound admirer of Trump and his guidelines.
Araujo, without having been ambassador of Brazil in any country, will head Itamaraty, as is known the Foreign Ministry, an entity with 200 years of history that, by tradition, has been under the command of politicians and experts but rarely in the hands of a career officer.
Despite his 23 years of public service, Araujo does not act in a very diplomatic manner and his pronouncements have generated international controversy and some discomfort in Itamaraty.
The alerts that were lit by Bolsonaro's criticisms of the Paris Agreement ended with the announcement of the future chancellor of Brazil's withdrawal from the World Forum on Migration.
According to experts, the message – which was endorsed by Bolsonaro and infuriated the current chancellor, Aloysio Nunes Ferreira – must be taken with caution, because it not only covers immigrants arriving in the country but also Brazilians who are abroad.
This issue and other Bolsonaro pronouncements about the country's indigenous policies, which, according to him, work in favor of foreign interests and put Brazil's sovereignty at risk, have fallen like a bucket of cold water in human rights organizations.
The fear that the indigenous cultures will disappear with the intention of the future president to integrate them into the customs of modern society adds to the fact that the Amazon is affected by Bolsonaro's repeated announcements that it will curb environmental barriers, encourage mining and build new hydroelectric plants in a region that, according to him, "has everything" but where "nothing is allowed".
María Angélica Troncoso