The wind seems to blow in favor of Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The polls say it, they know it in Genoa and also in the PSOE. The recently elected leader of the PP arrives at his first electoral appointment with the prospect of winning in Andalusia, the historic jewel of the Socialists, who arrive at the campaign with no expectations of governing. The Galician leader sees within reach of revalidating the Board on June 19. The great challenge for the candidate to repeat, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, is to obtain a sufficient majority and try to prevent Vox from imposing a coalition. Feijóo has been entrusted to the Andalusian president with a double objective: to be able to dispense with the extreme right and, at the same time, demonstrate that it can be done with a moderate message away from that of Isabel Díaz Ayuso.
Feijóo's economic guru earns a salary 60,000 euros higher than that published by the Andalusian Government
The PP has the result in Castilla y León fresh in its mind, where Alfonso Fernández Mañueco decided to bring forward the elections thinking that Ayuso's tailwind in Madrid would boost him. However, the campaign was long and ended up deflating. He resorted in the last section to the president of Madrid, who monopolized the closing ceremony of the campaign with her speech. The PP is now conspiring against this, which hopes that Moreno's management in these four years -which not only has not taken its toll on him, but after those he approves with a 6.28 in the barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS)– and the demobilization of the left brought him to a victory close to the absolute majority.
The great unknown is at the start of the campaign is whether Moreno will be able to monetize the collapse of Ciudadanos, attract a vote from the PSOE and stop the rise of Vox to govern alone. Everything, without abandoning a distant speech, almost opposite, to that of Ayuso in Madrid. In fact, the leadership of the Andalusian PP does not plan for the Madrid president to attend any event in the next 15 days. Her only presence in Andalusia was a fleeting visit to the province of Cádiz last week.
Some polls reflect this path for Moreno, but not all. But even the worst offer such a favorable scenario that in the PP they make an effort to lower expectations and avoid relaxation. The biggest risk is that their bases take the victory for sure and choose not to go to vote to enjoy a weekend that points to hot.
Although the trend of Macarena Olona's candidacy is one of stagnation, the pre-election barometer of the CIS indicates that the PP will need the extreme right to govern. It remains to be seen if Moreno achieves external support, as in Madrid, or if Vox fulfills its public promise to demand, yes or yes, its share in the future Government of the Board.
The PSOE has once again made Vox's entry into an autonomous government one of the main axes of the campaign, despite the fact that it has proven unsuccessful in other elections. The most recent case, in the aforementioned Castilla y León. In the socialist ranks there is concern about the demobilization of their own, although all the sources consulted insist on an activation in recent days and trust that it will be strengthened throughout the electoral campaign. "It started cold and is improving," they say in Ferraz, where they cling to the result in Castilla y León. Then, the polls predicted catastrophe for Luis Tudanca, who lost but by only 16,000 votes, although suffered a significant drop in seats.
The expectations of the socialists are, in any case, very low and they assume that they are not going to touch the power in their old stronghold. “The PP has consolidated and is going to ask for the useful vote so as not to govern with the extreme right. We continue to pay the wear and tear of 37 years of government and also that people do not know the candidate”, summarizes an Andalusian leader.
Juan Espadas has been at the head of the Andalusian PSOE for just one year, after seven as mayor of Seville. But he has been insufficient to make himself known: a third of Andalusians (even a third of socialist voters) do not know him, according to the CIS poll. "He will be wrong," said the socialist candidate about the setback that José Félix Tezanos predicts for him, which gives him a range of between 32 and 36 seats compared to 47-49 for the PP.
The objective that they have set is to maintain the result of Susana Díaz, who four years ago sank to 33 deputies with 28% of the votes. Get the nearly 400,000 voters out of abstention that they stayed at home, then, is the main challenge that Espadas has set itself for the campaign.
Swords has multiplied his agenda in recent times and has already counted on Sánchez in some pre-campaign events, who will not finally visit all the provinces, as was the intention. The president will participate in an act in Almería this Sunday, in Malaga the following Saturday and in the closing of the campaign in the Seville capital. The Socialists risk losing in all the provinces, including Seville.
The division of the left into two lists is penalized
The result is not at all encouraging for the progressive forces in Andalusia. According to the CIS, the PP would get more seats than the three together: PSOE, Por Andalucía (9-10) and Adelante Andalucía (2). The process of forming the candidacy to the left of the PSOE was a clash that, according to the sources consulted, takes its toll on them. Compared to the 17 deputies that the unitary candidacy led by Teresa Rodríguez achieved four years ago, the sum of the Cadiz and Inma Nieto, who as the socialist candidate is also quite unknown among her electorate, would leave at least five seats, according to the CIS , despite the fact that his fall in percentage of the vote would be proportionally less.
In the campaign, the Minister of Consumption and leader of IU, Alberto Garzón, who will participate in a dozen acts, while one will bring together the national leaders of Podemos and Yolanda Díaz next day 14 in Seville. In addition, the Vice President of the Government will participate in another campaign event on June 11 in Córdoba to support Nieto, the candidate to whom she gave her support during the negotiation of the coalition in which Podemos, IU, Más País, Verdes participate. Equo, Alianza Verde and the Andalusian People's Initiative.
For her part, in Adelante Andalucía, Teresa Rodríguez maintains her strength in Cádiz, where she has secured the seat and one is at stake in Granada, according to the public demoscopic center.
The one who risks his survival once again is Citizens. As happened in Castilla y León, the party of Inés Arrimadas fights not to remain as an extra-parliamentary force after having been part of the bipartisan government with the PP.