Neither in the affiliation, nor in the ERTE, nor looking at the sectors with the most electricity or fuel consumption. "Nothing". The Minister of Social Security, José Luis Escrivá, has advanced this Wednesday the affiliation data until mid-March and the employment forecast for the month, on which he has insisted that at this time there is no effect of the war in Ukraine . "The dynamism of employment is maintained as in other years with good months in March and with more and more indefinite contracts", he has insisted as an effect of the labor reform.
The minister explained that the Social Security forecast is to end the month with an average of 146,000 more affiliated workers, "in line with previous years" of job creation, such as from 2016 to 2019. In the year prior to the pandemic, for example, the increase in employment was 155,000 workers.
If you look at the daily affiliation of this 2022 compared to the average of the years 2017 to 2019, the increase in the number of workers evolves in a very similar way, according to the data shown by the minister in a presentation (minute 23 of the video).
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In seasonally adjusted terms, which exclude calendar and seasonal effects, the Ministry calculates that March will leave “30,000 more affiliated people”, which Escrivá has considered a good record. It would slightly decrease job creation compared to February (37,726 more affiliates)a month that already represented a decrease compared to the previous ones, which obtained very high affiliation data.
Escrivá has argued that the increase in employment in March is close to the "normal" of times of growth, leaving behind the great post-pandemic booms, marked by the end of restrictions and the recovery of lost activity.
Red Mechanism only for travel agencies, not yet because of the war
Regarding the ERTE, the minister recalled that the Government left this month of March of "transition"with a one-month extension of the ERTE mechanism due to COVID so that companies that need it transition to the permanent modalities of the labor reform: the reformed ERTE due to force majeure and ERTE due to objective reasons (ETOP), as well as the new files of the Red Mechanism, for cyclical or sectoral crises.
During the first fortnight of March, workers in ERTE ETOP have increased by "about 3,000 people", which the minister has said belong entirely to the automobile sector, which is already the one that concentrates the most employees in this tool in recent years. months.
Escrivá has maintained that the Government for the moment is only considering activating the Sectoral Network Mechanism for the travel agency sector, so that it is ready at the beginning of April. The minister has warned that they do not see any other activity with a significant impact on employment.
Regarding President Sánchez's announcement that the Red Mechanism would be made available to companies affected by the war in Ukraine, Escrivá pointed out that work is not yet being done along these lines because they are not noticing effects on employment, but that the mechanism will be available if needed.
"We did not find any sector especially affected, it will depend on the impact of the war, now it is very hasty," he said. "The important thing is to keep a close follow-up, day by day," he added.
Increasing increase of the indefinite
The head of Social Security has highlighted as one of the most important points the improvement in employment stability after two months of labor reform, with a "growing increase in permanent workers" and a decrease in temporary ones. As well The most precarious one-day contracts continue to fall sharplyas the minister warned last month.
According to the affiliation data until March 10, which can be consulted in the video from minute 24, the minister has stressed that there are some 500,000 more affiliated workers with indefinite contracts compared to December, when the usual in previous years (2017 -2019) was around 150,000 more. That is to say, "some 344,000 permanent members more than other years", José Luis Escrivá has celebrated.
The opposite occurs with temporary workers, who fell sharply in the first quarter of the year, with "about 350,000 members less than in a normal year."
"This exceeds expectations", the minister insisted, and "shows that everything that was designed in the reform is very well done and they are consistent with dynamism in the labor market despite the hardships, in an international internal extraordinarily complex."