Ecuador closes a complicated year and enters a “complex” and “uncertain” 2020



Ecuador closes a complicated 2019 due to financial issues and will enter a “complex” and “uncertain” 2020 due to economic needs, and the impact that the electoral process will have in the country to replace the head of state, Lenín Moreno, who will end his functions in 2021, according to analysts.

For the economic analyst Alberto Acosta Burneo, 2020 will be “an even more complicated year because we will be at the doors of the elections and that will make the populist politicians we have in Ecuador offer the gold and the Moor.”

“We are approaching some very complex moments in Ecuador, where political uncertainty will be a constant, social dissatisfaction, the rule, and that, most likely, will lead us to have many years of economic stagnation at the hand of an adjustment that cannot be made due to lack of political will and popular support, “Acosta Burneo told Efe.

“HUGE REVERSE” OF THE GOVERNMENT

The analyst Santiago Basabe believes that the Moreno Government belatedly tried to turn the economic model and suffered a “huge setback” in early October when social protests broke out against the elimination of the fuel subsidy.

He described the communication strategy for the elimination of the subsidy as “bad”, a measure that Moreno was forced to repeal, driven by growing social protests – some of them from unusual violence – that lasted eleven days.

Dean of the Department of Political Studies of the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (Flacso), Basabe told Efe that the Government closes the year with a large debt in economic restructuring issues.

The support of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been fundamental this year for the Government, which recently achieved a millionaire disbursement of 498.4 million dollars, which served as a momentary “escape valve” in a month of extra economic demands for the payment of the additional salary of December.

But, beyond the economic, Basabe sees a “huge political support” of the IMF to the administration of Moreno because, “on more than one occasion, has yielded and assumed that the Government will not be able to fulfill all that it offered” and Despite this, he has disbursed money.

Ecuador kept distance with the IMF in the administration of Rafael Correa, who ruled for a decade.

Moreno came to power in May 2017 supported by Correa, who now calls him a “traitor” and has become his staunch political enemy.

“I think that the four years of a good transition were lost and it seems to me that the real transition is going to be a good part of the Government’s work of 2021, because President Moreno does not think he has time for a real rearrangement, especially of the economy, “Basabe said.

PENDING SETTINGS

If 2019 has already been a complicated year, the economic analyst Diego Olmedo fears that the next one will be “more complex”, since a package of adjustments to solve the economic issues of the nation is pending.

And he was worried about the difficulties that the Government has shown in explaining to society the reasons why he resumed dialogues with the IMF, one of the targets of harsh criticism by protesters in October.

Olmedo told Efe that the Moreno administration has to work “hard” to make people understand “why they have to land 3,000 million dollars next year and measures are going to come in that direction.”

“The IMF asks us to make adjustments and the national government has to make the whole country understand why that adjustment is necessary since we are in a fiscal deficit situation, which by 2020 will be at 3.4 billion dollars and financing needs are going to be at 5.2 billion dollars, “he calculated.

With that panorama, Olmedo agrees with Basabe and Acosta Burneo that next year will be more difficult than the one that is about to end if the Government does not make the necessary corrective measures to reactivate the economy.

But he predicts that there will be no drastic solutions: “I see no signs that you want to adjust to the economy in a radical way,” which could transfer the responsibility of reviving the economy to the next government, he says.

Susana Wood

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