March 7, 2021

ECLAC reduces Latin America's growth forecast to 0.5% for 2019

ECLAC reduced the economic growth outlook of Latin America and the Caribbean for 2019 on Wednesday to 0.5%, compared to 1.3% estimated last April, due to poor performance of investment, exports, to a fall in public spending and a weak world economy.

This year there will be a general slowdown that will affect 21 of the 33 countries in the region, according to the Economic Survey for Latin America and the Caribbean 2019 that the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) presented this Wednesday in Santiago de Chile .

The agency projected a world growth of 2.6% for 2019, four tenths below that observed in 2018, a weakening in which commercial tensions and geopolitical problems have resulted that have also resulted in an unfavorable international scenario for the region.

According to the report, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of South America is expected to grow 0.2% this year, while Central American economies will expand 2.9%, down to 1.4% if Mexico is contemplated with the economies of Central America.

Meanwhile, 2.1% growth is expected for the Caribbean.

By country, Dominica will lead the region's growth with 9.9%, followed by Antigua and Barbuda (5.9%) and the Dominican Republic (5.5%).

Panama's economy will grow to 4.9%, Guyana's to 4.6% and Bolivia's to 4%.

According to ECLAC forecasts, Peru will grow to 3.2%, Colombia to 3.1%, Chile to 2.8%, Mexico to 1% and Brazil to 0.8%.

The three countries in negative numbers are Argentina, which will suffer a decline of 1.8%, Nicaragua (- 5%) and Venezuela (- 23%).

In the first quarter of the year, economic activity in Latin America contracted 0.1% with respect to the same period of 2018.

The economies of South America decreased by an average of 0.7% in the first quarter of 2019, which contrasts with the growth of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2018.

For its part, the economies of Central America show during that quarter a growth rate lower than that of the first quarter of 2018, of 3.3%.

If Central America and Mexico are taken into account, the growth of the first quarter of 2019 was 1.5%.

At the national level, during the first quarter of 2019 the Dominican Republic and the Plurinational State of Bolivia were the economies with the highest growth in the region (5.7% and around 4.0%, respectively), followed by Panama (3.1%), Guatemala (3.0%) and Colombia (2.8%).

Five economies contracted in the first quarter (Argentina, Nicaragua, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela), Brazil slowed down (0.46%) and the other economies grew between 0.6% and 2.6%.

. (tagsToTranslate) Cepal (t) forecast (t) growth (t) America (t) Latina

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