January 28, 2021

Each player, with only one tenth, has a chance between 100,000 to get the Christmas Fat prize, which distributes 400,000 euros


The tricks, estimates and "accounting" are the preferred exercises of the Spanish these days. The Draw of the Gordo and its 400,000 euros, rather 320,000 after passing through the Treasury, are just around the corner. But, are there really possibilities for this award to touch us? Each player with only one tenth has a possibility between 100,000 to have in his hands one of the graceful tenths. "This is because 100,000 numbers can be issued, of which only one is the graceful one," explains the Professor of the Financial Studies Foundation, Miguel Ángel Bernal, who points out that "the probability of recovering money via pedrea is one among 10 possibilities ”.

In this regard and in the face of the Sweepstakes celebration, the professor points out that, in the lottery,the expected gain of any player is always negative. Moreover, even if a person bought all the tickets in a lottery, an important part would never be distributed. ” Also, given the superstition that makes some numbers more sought after than others, Miguel Ángel Bernal points out that "when the balls enter the bass drum, at that precise moment, any of them has the same probability of leaving." "It is an isolated event and therefore, discreet and not continuous." Thus, Bernal explains that "the probability that a plane crashes is the same as the one in the lottery, that is, one in 100,000, therefore, if 99,999 have already flown, would anyone fly?"

The Christmas Sweepstakes becomes, in short, "in just a game and wait to see if there is luck." Bernal rejects that the tricks, like always playing at the same number, "have some kind of effectiveness to become a millionaire." And, on whether it is advisable to follow any guidelines to increase the chances of winning in the Draw, he emphasizes that "even if a person bought all the numbers, he would never receive the amount invested, since the Treasury pockets a large amount of the prize." In this sense, the Professor of the Foundation of Financial Studies considers that the establishment of the lien to the prizes of the lottery “has a fundraising desire”. On the fiscal side of this award, Bernal points out that “El Niño is better”, And remember that, until December 31 of this year, the first 20,000 euros are exempt from taxes, however, in 2020 the exemption“ will already be of the first 40,000 ”. In addition, it recommends that the tenths must be signed on the back with the ID number, in case of theft, loss or deterioration, which would prevent the collection of money. "A tenth is a bearer ticket and, in the event that you touch a prize among several people, it is important to declare it to the entity that has guarded that number."

Finally, the expert throws a question: is it a problem for companies to win the Fat Christmas Sweepstakes? In any case, if on December 22 he does not touch the Gordo must comply with trying to recover the money played, since there is a 10% chance that he will be reimbursed.

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