"Do not trust you in the polls"



The president of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), José Félix Tezanos, explained on Tuesday that all the polls have "theoretical margin of error" and that the prediction of the vote has become much more complicated today, for which he has advised the deputies don't trust them.

"Do not trust the surveys because they are a very relative measurement model; the fetishism of the surveys can lead to notable errors because they all have a theoretical margin of error and according to the number of interviews this margin of error can be very wide", Tezanos has detailed during his appearance before the Constitutional Commission of Congress.

The president of the demoscopic institute, whose management is questioned by the opposition, has emphasized the controversial question of the April barometer regarding the control of hoaxes, which, although it is "poorly written", gives a very clear answer: the vast majority of the population in favor of monitoring the spread of false information from governmental spheres.

He added that no one from the Government has ever asked him to ask a specific question.

Tezanos' appearance has been due to a request from the PP unanimously endorsed. The request was aimed at clarifying this question and, in general terms, the management that is being carried out at the head of the Center.

The president of the CIS has emphasized the complexity that currently entails the preparation of surveys with vote estimation, in which the aforementioned margin of error can range between 10 or 12 points if, for example, it is made up of 18,000 interviews.

For this reason, he said, "the surprising thing sometimes is to be right", since "guessing what people who say they do not know what they will vote for is guessing."

However, his team at the CIS is based on science despite the fact that in Spain, in recent years, the percentage of citizens who know what they will vote before the campaign has dropped to 70 percent, than 10 percent decide the vote during the last week of the campaign and 5 percent, the same day of the elections.

Tezanos has defended his management as president of the CIS, and thus, has stressed that he is not interested in the political affiliations of his team or asks anyone about it, although he stressed that he knows that one person is from the PSOE and another from the UGT.

He has also used his CV to prove his prestige as a sociologist.

And it has defended the methodological changes made, despite the fact that they have been minimal.

Three, he has cited: the sample size, which has risen to 3,000 citizens because it was noted that 40 percent, sometimes more, systematically did not know or did not answer the questions; the monthly frequency, since society has become volatile and changing; and that the time between the end of the fieldwork and the publication of the results has been shortened.

The CIS president has addressed the so-called "kitchen", which also had to change because it was proven that the previous one did not work.

He and his team, as he remarked, designed a method after consultation with numerous experts consisting of 108 variables, hence the name "V108". He emphasized that the results it gives are comparable to those of previous barometers.

Regarding the question of the hoaxes, Tezanos praised their suitability in the April barometer because at that time three were circulating in the networks: one about potions against the coronavirus, another about the elderly being allowed to die in hospitals, on the collection of toilet paper and on a supposed financial "playpen".

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