Díaz competes with Sánchez among the voters of the PSOE while Belarra does not penetrate among those of Podemos

There is little more than a year left for the elections. The government partners are preparing to face a decisive end to the legislature, Yolanda Díaz advances in the configuration of her political platform, the PP has closed its leadership crisis, Vox hopes to obtain a definitive boost with the Andalusian elections and Ciudadanos fight for their political survival. Everyone tries to reach the generals scheduled for December 2023 in the best possible position.

Beneath this contest collected month after month in the main graphs of the polls, and which reflects a permanent electoral campaign, there is a hidden fight between the main party leaders. A fight for popularity –or valuation– that directly affects the political struggle. At a time when hyper-leaderships have left political parties in the backgroundthe victory of the candidate among the electorate becomes a crucial variable for the elections.

Now, the still photo leaves a clear distribution of voter preferences. For example, he points out that Yolanda Díaz is the politician with the best popularity data at the moment. For a year he has dethroned Pedro Sánchez, who now also has the threat of an Alberto Núñez Feijóo much better seen than his predecessor, Pablo Casado, who garnered very low valuation data during his time at the head of the PP.

But the descent to the detail of that data throws up many more keys. It reveals, for example, that Díaz is fighting with Sánchez among PSOE voters, and that for months he has been disputing the sympathy of his own electorate. This descent into detail also shows who comes out worse off. On that side is Ione Belarra, general secretary of Podemos, who took the reins of the party after the departure of Pablo Iglesias from politics. Its biggest burden is a great lack of knowledge even on the part of the citizens, to which is added a bad evaluation. All the leaders of the left have a better image among Podemos voters than its general secretary. Belarra even fails among her own constituency.

According to data from Simple Lógica, Díaz is the politician whose management is most approved by citizens. He entered the monthly valuation rankings between May and June 2021, when the resignation of Pablo Iglesias was accompanied by pointing to the Minister of Labor as his successor, the next United We Can candidate for the general elections. Díaz has been reticent for months and has postponed his so-called "listening process" to try to put together a broad candidacy of leftist parties.

While she is inching her way through that process, her valuation data puts her at the top of the charts in popularity. In the May survey of Simple Lógica, she won a positive assessment that reached 42.9%, compared to 36% in which Sánchez and Feijóo were tied.

The problem for Sánchez is, furthermore, that the data from Simple Lógica reveals that Díaz is disputing the positive assessment among his own voters. Those who said they voted for the PSOE in 2019 value Sánchez positively at 71.4%; the Minister of Labor manages to overtake him by one tenth and obtains 71.5%.

In addition, those who voted socialist that 10N and are dissatisfied with the management of the Prime Minister are more (27.1) than those who disapprove of Díaz's management (22.7%).

The Center for Sociological Research reveals a similar scenario. In the general evaluation, Díaz surpasses Sánchez. The CIS barometers measure popularity in a different way, preparing an average grade from all the grades that their respondents give to politicians: Sánchez obtains a 4.28 while Díaz manages to pass with 5.05.

When you look at the note given by each voter, something similar happens as in the Simple Logic poll. The voters of the PSOE give the President of the Government a note of 6.29 while the Vice President obtains a 6.27. Only two tenths of a difference between the socialist electorate.

Díaz's drive has allowed United We Can recover slightly from its worst electoral data. Between May and June 2021, the party had fallen to 8.7% in the Simple Lógica poll. The party has now risen to over 10% but remains unable to take off beyond that figure, down from the 12.8% it won in the 2019 election.

These estimates are made by asking voters about their intentions to vote for United We Can. For now, the project that Yolanda Díaz wants to command to bring together the left that does not vote for the PSOE, and that already has a name, is not reflected in the polls. This platform is still in a very embryonic phase, without defined alliances with other formations.

While Iglesias' finger pointed to Díaz as a candidate for that electoral space, he also indicated that the new leader of United We Can would be Ione Belarra. The Minister of Social Rights had been until March 2021 the Secretary of State for the 2030 Agenda and deputy of the confederal group, with a lesser-known profile than that of the Podemos positions with a portfolio in the Council of Ministers.

The leap to party leadership was abrupt, as was Iglesias' departure. The polls reveal that a year later, Belarra has still not managed to make herself known among the electorate in general, and the detail shows that the voters of her party place her last in their order of preferences of leftist leaders.

According to data from Simple Lógica, the group of those surveyed leaves Belarra as the politician who obtains the lowest positive assessment, of only 11.5. It is also the one with the highest percentage of people who do not give their opinion on its management (29.8%) and 58.7% disapprove.

The problem for Belarra is also among his own constituency. Those who voted for United We Can in 2019 better value the rest of the political leaders of the left; Díaz obtains a 74.1% positive assessment, Íñigo Errejón 69.7%, Alberto Garzón 59.9% and Pedro Sánchez 52.1%.

Belarra remains at 36.9%. Moreover, among his own electorate there are more people who suspend his administration (41.7%) than those who approve of it.

In the case of Belarra, there is no data from the CIS to compare her note with that of Díaz or Sánchez. The monthly barometers do not ask about her because, they indicate from the CIS, when they asked United We Can after the departure of Iglesias which leader they should include in their monthly assessments, they were told Yolanda Díaz. Thus, the only thermometer that the CIS offers to measure Belarra's popularity are the quarterly polls on ministers.

The last one published is from April. Belarra is not one of the ministers with the least knowledge: 55.9% say that they know the Minister of Social Rights, while 43.9% say that she does not know her. There are seven ministers less known than her. But when the citizens are asked about the note, Belarra falls to the bottom. She obtains a grade of 3.85, the worst of the entire Council of Ministers, and the only one below a 4 along with Irene Montero, Minister of Equality (3.9).

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