Fri. Apr 19th, 2019

cuts its growth forecast one tenth

cuts its growth forecast one tenth

The IMF cuts the expectation of growth of the Spanish economy, which stands at 2.1% in 2019, one tenth less than predicted in its previous report. The numbers of Spain, one of the economies of the euro zone that better resists, contrast with the predicted debacle in countries like Italy, that as soon as it will grow 0,1% or the deceleration of the German GDP, stagnated in 0,8%. On average, the euro countries will grow by 1.3%. In the Spanish case, the report adds the need to address the problem of public indebtedness, which threatens the resilience of the system in the face of a new crisis.

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By 2020 it maintains its estimate for Spain, with a 1.9% expected GDP growth. However, this means that our country will not join the global recovery of the world economy that is expected for next year. In this way, Spain will be one of the only three advanced countries (together with the United States and Japan) that will grow less in 2020 than in 2019.

In the labor market, the IMF forecasts that Spanish unemployment will fall from 15.3% in 2018, to 14.2% in 2019 and to 14.1% in 2020, levels that nevertheless double the majority of its neighbor countries. The only indicator that improves is the deficit, since it calculates that in 2019 it will close at 2.6%. This is equivalent to two tenths less than what was estimated in October. However, it is a deviation of 0.8 points on the 1.8% target agreed with the EU, which is almost 10,000 million euros.

The report, whose publication coincides with the celebration of the meeting of the agency and the World Bank in Washington, projects serious shadows on the continent. Especially because of the uncertainty of a possible Brexit without an agreement, which would profoundly affect international trade and would generate serious disruptions in the exchange of goods and financial transactions, but also due to the evident deceleration of domestic consumption in Germany. A country in which the new anti-pollution regulations in the automobile sector would also have caused difficulties. For the IMF, it is imperative that the ECB maintain its stimulus policy.

The report notes that global growth "decreased to 3.6% in 2018 and would continue that trajectory to reach 3.3% in 2019. While a global expansion of 3.3% is still reasonable, the outlook that many countries face are very hard, marked by considerable short-term uncertainty, especially as the growth rates of the advanced economies converge towards a modest long-term potential. "

Beyond Europe, which consolidates its sad burden for the global economy, the United States maintains solid levels of growth. But even the American power suffers from the uncertainties of the still possible trade war with China, whose first attempts would have damaged growth in other parts of the world, as well as the lukewarm reaction to the tax cuts approved by the White House.

Neither seem to help statements as devastating as the director of the magazine Aviation Week to US public radio, the NPR, which accuses Boeing of having made a sloppy update of the 737 to the impossibility of delivering a new aircraft capable of compete in terms of energy efficiency with the Airbus A320neo. Bad news if we take into account the cuts that the American aeronautics giant must face.

Meanwhile, "the macroeconomic tensions in Argentina and Turkey," "the tightening of credit policies in China and the contraction of financial conditions that occurred in parallel with the normalization of monetary policy in the larger advanced economies have contributed to a significant weakening of the global expansion, especially in the second half of 2018 ».

Of course, all the falls pale in comparison with the experts' predictions for Venezuela. The contraction of the economy will reach 25% in 2019, that is, the Bolivarian Republic will witness the volatilization of a quarter of GDP in a year while inflation reaches the absurd figure of 10,000,000%. It is no longer in the failed satrapy of Nicolás Maduro.

For the rest, and although the IMF estimates that world economic growth could "come as a surprise if trade disputes are resolved quickly, the risks are still present and, among others, cite" the upsurge in trade and economic tensions. the corresponding worsening of the uncertainty surrounding policies "and" the possibility of a sharp deterioration in the mood of the financial markets ".


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