Coronavirus in the Canary Islands: Five researchers from the ULPGC publish an article on mathematical models used in the coronavirus – La Provincia

Five researchers, four of them from the ULPGC published an article entitled ‘The Conversation’ on the scientific dissemination platform Covid-19: pandemic of mathematical models, in which the different models that are being used to predict the number of affected of this disease.

The article is signed by researchers from the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria Beatriz González López-Valcárcel, Lluis Serra Majem, Silvia Rodríguez-Mireles and Patricia Barber, together with Laura Tomaino, from the University of Milan.

This article concludes that “we are already in the descent of the contagion curve, but we are still in the ascending phase of predictive models. Every day new models appear, whose predictions also seem to be subject to contagion, as it is shocking that with such a degree of uncertainty there is so much consensus in the results between models. Time will tell. For now, it is time to thank the efforts of the scientific modeling community to shine the crystal ball. “

Let’s be optimistic, scientific collaboration, sharing open source models like EpiNow, in R, and available resource libraries to model the Covid-19 will provide useful information to make sound decisions, “says the text.

The article refers to at least ten models that are used these days to predict infected, ICU beds needed, number of contacts, number of infected that each person infects, etc.

The work indicates that “the models have two phases: one of adjustment and another of prediction. In the one of adjustment, it is determined which mathematical functions and parameter values ​​are compatible with the data that we observe of daily evolution of the epidemic in the past , also incorporating a priori biomedical knowledge about the natural history of the disease, in a Bayesian approach. Once the model that best fits the data of the past – the one that best predicts the past – has been chosen, it is used to simulate or predict the evolution of cases in the future, under different intervention scenarios. The great problem of this phase is that we can be sure that the parameters will follow the pattern they are supposed to have in the future. “

The Conversation Spain is the main channel for the dissemination of knowledge emanating from universities. The ULPGC It joined this platform in February 2020, as it has been sponsored by the CRUE-Spanish Universities. Until now, researchers at the ULPGC They have published 13 articles in this channel, in addition to an editorial by the Rector Rafael Robaina on the collateral effects of Covid-19, specifically on university management, in the bulletin published daily by the platform.

The Conversation features editions in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Indonesia and Africa, In addition to the Spanish edition, which was launched in the summer of 2018 and in just over a year, it has achieved more than 20 million readings thanks to the republication of the articles in 170 media.

All articles published in The Conversation can be republished, in printed or digital form, without being edited, ensuring that it is attributed to its author, its reference institution (university or research center), and mentioning that the article was Originally published in The Conversation.

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