October 26, 2020

Coronavirus in Spain: maps and latest regrowth data and their evolution

Data from the Ministry of Health updated on July 31, 2020.

The new notification system published by the Ministry of Health since May 25 invalidates the previous data series. See more information here.

1) Deaths and cases by communities

Which are the Autonomous Communities in which a greater number of cases have been detected? The Community of Madrid, Catalonia, Castilla-La Mancha and Castilla y León are the regions with the highest number of infected people confirmed through a PCR test (or by antibodies since May 11).

2) How many cases have been confirmed in 7 days?

The following table shows the total number of confirmed cases, the new cases compared to the previous day and the cases diagnosed in the last week. We have calculated the number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants in relation to the cases diagnosed in the last 7 days.

* Some communities, such as Madrid, report their daily cases late

3) The weekly evolution of the epidemic

To show how the epidemic is currently progressing, we show the evolution of weekly cases as well as deaths, hospitalizations and ICU admissions during the last 7 days for the country as a whole.

How is the epidemic evolving now?

Evolution of cases, deaths, hospitalized and ICU patients accumulated during the last week

Source: Ministry of Health

4) Evolution of new daily cases

How many cases are we detecting now and how many do we detect at the beginning of the epidemic? The following chart compares the number of new daily cases by symptom onset date since February 1. To avoid detection spikes on a specific day, the average of both figures has also been calculated, including the last 7 days.

The figures for the last week may be underestimated since many cases that started symptoms in that period may not have been detected by the health authorities.

Evolution of new daily cases by date of onset of symptoms

Rhythm of new daily cases by symptom onset date. The blue line shows the weekly average of new daily cases

Source: Ministry of Health

5) Accumulated incidence, by province

To see how controlled the pandemic is and to identify possible outbreaks, the following map shows the main variables to see the situation of the epidemic in each province: if the cases are rising or falling, the incidence of cases per inhabitant in the last two weeks, the total number of cases and the incidence of the virus compared to its population.

These data are published by the Carlos III Health Institute (ISCIII) through the National Network of Epidemiological Surveillance (RENAVE) and it is done by Symptom onset date or diagnosis date for asymptomatic cases. As in the previous graph, the data for the last week may be underestimated since the date of onset of the symptoms is taken into account and it takes a few days for them to be diagnosed from the contagion.

Source: Carlos III Institute

6) Confirmed deaths in the last week

The following table shows the total number of people who died with COVID-19 and the deaths reported in the last week. We have calculated the number of deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 7 days. Death figures only include those who died positive on an analytical test.

* Sanidad warns that the change in the notification system applied on May 25 may lead to discrepancies in the figures that will be eliminated as the new series consolidates.

7) The incidence of the virus in each community

To find out what the degree of virus penetration is compared to the number of inhabitants, we have calculated the rate of confirmed cases and the number of deaths in each autonomy per 100,000 inhabitants. The confirmed cases refer to those identified by PCR test or by antibody test – in the latter case, only those carried out as of May 11 with compatible symptoms are counted.

8) The curve of cases and deaths in each community

The ISCIII data collect the number of people who began to have symptoms of the disease each day. In this way we can know what has been the evolution of the curve of cases detected in each community. Records indicate that the week of March 14 was key throughout the country. It also shows us in which communities there are regrowths, albeit late. On the other hand, the series of deceased from the Ministry of Health includes the number of people who died each day with coronavirus in each community.

In the graph below, you can explore the number of people who started COVID-19 symptoms each day in each autonomous community and the number of deaths affected by the virus. The data is shown with the daily average for the last week.

How has the curve of each autonomous community changed?

Evolution of
number of new cases and daily deaths in each autonomous community. Cases are shown by date of onset of symptoms or by date of notification and for deceased by date of death. Click to see the detail

Source: Carlos III Institute (ISCII)

9) Hospitalizations and ICU

The number of hospital beds and the number of ICU places in the autonomous communities are two of the “quantitative criteria“that the Ministry of Health takes into account when evaluating the phase change of the regions in the de-escalation process. The following table shows the total data and in the last seven days of people with COVID-19 who have required hospitalization or ICU admission.

10) Evolution of cases compared to PCR tests performed

Tracking the number of tests compared to detected cases is an indicator of the diagnostic effort being made to detect new cases. When the number of tests is high and the number of cases detected is low, the risk that there is a significant number of infected people not detected by the health system remains low, and therefore the calculated incidence is reliable. On the other hand, if the number of tests is low and the number of cases is high, the incidence could be underestimated.

Cases diagnosed by PCR tests performed

Evolution of cases detected among the PCR tests performed in comparison with the diagnosed cases weekly

Source: Ministry of Health

11) Diagnostic tests performed

As of July 23, the autonomous communities had notified the Ministry of Health of the completion of a total of 6,131,034 diagnostic tests. Of these, 4,073,664 were PCR tests (which measure the presence of the virus in the body) and 2,057,370 antibody tests, the so-called ‘rapid tests’.

Some clues about the data

Due to the successive changes in the form of notification of the data in the reports of the Ministry of Health, it is worth taking into account some keys:

Since May 18 the Ministry of Health has not provided the number of people recovered.

Also from that day on, Health stopped including in its reports the number of cases detected by antibody tests. Thus, the total cases to the cases detected with PCR test.

On Monday, May 25, the daily updates from the Ministry of Health changed again. This change is due to the fact that on May 11 the new pandemic diagnosis, surveillance and control strategy came into force, by which the autonomous communities must notify the cases individually to the Ministry.

As a consequence of this modification, the report warns, they may appear “discrepancies with respect to total case data previously reported”. “This discrepancy could persist for even several days.”

At the moment, and until the Ministry of Health does not publish the corrected and updated data series, it is not possible to see the daily, rough evolution of the advance of the coronavirus in Spain (confirmed, deceased and recovered cases), since the series has been truncated. For this reason, we have eliminated some graphics that until now we included in this piece. As CCAES corrects and updates historical data, we will add new graphs and data analysis to our information.


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