April 14, 2021

Consumer confidence picks up in January but maintains a negative perception

Consumer confidence picks up in January but maintains a negative perception


MADRIDUpdated:

The consumer confidence has started the year with a rebound of 3.2% in January due to the improvement of the assessment that citizens make of the current situation, although it remains in negative territory and well below the level of a year ago. The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) reported Tuesday that The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) stood at 93.8 points in January, 2.8 above the close of 2018, although still not exceeding 100 points that mark the threshold between a positive and negative perception.

Further, the index is 9.1% lower than the 102.3 points recorded in January 2017, when all together consumers were confident, especially with respect to their expectations six months ahead.

The rise of the ICC in January is due to a greater extent to the improvement of the Spanish perception regarding the current situation of three factors (family economy, Spanish economy and employment) about six months ago. That sub-index climbed 4.3 points, to 93.8%.

Specifically, the valuation on the general evolution of the economy grew 4.1 points, the perception of the situation of households 2.9 and the labor market 5.7.

Further, the subscript that measures the expectations on those same variables for the next six months it also rose, although only 1.4 points, to 99.8, very close to the one hundred barrier. The rise in expectations is due to a better view of the future situation of the labor market (1.9 points more) and the situation of households (2.5).

Average lower than that of 2017

During 2018, the annual average of the ICC stood at 98.3 points and only exceeded the level of one hundred points that marks the negative terrain in January, July and August. That average is 4.5 points lower than the 2017 and 2015 which are the historical maximums of the series, that is elaborated since 2004.

In relation to January 2018, the decline is significant, since it represents 8.6 points, with a loss for the valuation of the current situation of 5.8 and for expectations of 11.3 points.

The worsening during this year is mainly due to the fall in the assessment of the current economic situation of the country (-14.5 points) and the options offered by the labor market (-8.6). In contrast, the situation in households improves by 5.6 points.

In addition, expectations fall again with respect to employment (-18.8 points) and the evolution of the national economy (-20.4), although they improve with respect to the evolution of households (5.4).

In monthly terms, there was an increase in consumption expectations (1.3 points) and much more moderate in savings (0.8), while inflation fears increased slightly (0.5) and fell in the same measure the strong expectations about a future increase in interest rates.

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