September 18, 2020

Consumer confidence falls back to lows in August




Consumer confidence worsened in August to return to the lows set in April – in a state of alarm and confinement due to the Covid-19 pandemic – and at levels similar to those of the worst moments of 2012 and 2008. According to the Indicator Consumer Confidence (ICC) published this Monday by the Sociological Research Center (CIS), this stood in August at 49.9 points, 3.2 below the data of the previous month, with worse valuations, both from the current situation and, above all, from future expectations.

Specifically, the valuation of the current situation fell 0.4 points, while that of expectations did so by 5.9.

Overall, since February of this year the CCI has decreased by 41.7%, with a decrease of 60.8% in the current situation index and a loss of 26.5% in the expectations index.

Consumer confidence, in monthly comparison, plummeted in March and April and rebounded slightly in May and June. In July it fell again, as it has happened in August.

With these evolutions, the index registers the same value as in April, in figures very similar to those obtained in 2012 and the first months of 2013 and also to those that occurred in 2008 and early 2009, “the lowest values ​​in the series so far “, far from the 100 points, which mark the beginning of what can be considered a positive perception.

The CIS points out that the August index “continues to collect a special and atypical context due to the global crisis caused by the Covid-19 virus” and details that the field work for this month was carried out from 17 to 21, “in the phase of a new normality and with expectations that continue to be conditioned by the existing climate of uncertainty. “

At the detail of the two variables, in the current situation the three components fell: the valuation of the current economic situation by 0.1 points, while those of the labor market and households obtained a loss of 0.5.

The CIS adds that both the data for evaluating the current economic situation, 8.9 points, and that of the labor market, 14.6 points, “are among the worst evaluations obtained to date, together with those obtained from late 2008 and early 2009 and late 2012 “.

In the one of expectations, which stood at 70.1 points, the three components also fell: the assessment of the evolution of the economy in the immediate future, which fell 6.9 points; that of the future of the labor market, 4.9, and the future evolution of the situation of households that was valued negatively with 6 points less than in July.

The evolution of consumer expectations in relation to prices, interest rates, household savings possibilities and the purchase of durable goods also decreased in August.

The ICC is calculated as the arithmetic mean of the balance sheets of the current situation of the family economy, the Spanish economy and employment, with respect to the one that existed six months ago, and the respective expectations for the next six months.

Both the ICC, as well as the current situation and expectations indices, can take values ​​that range from 0 to 200.

Above 100, it indicates a positive perception of consumers and below 100 a negative perception.

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