Mon. Nov 18th, 2019

Citizens save the PSOE

The crash of Citizens predicting the polls could help Pedro Sanchez to save the furniture if next November 10 confirms the electoral stalemate of a PSOE down. The average vote derived from the latest polls puts the Socialists almost eight tenths below their April 28 result while the popular would record a rise of more than four points.

If confirmed, this correlation of vote would award the PP almost 30 seats more than those obtained on 28-A, practically the same ones that Citizens would lose. However, the decline of the PSOE would not be reflected in its calculation of deputies, although the irruption of More Country, the party of Iñigo Errejón, seems to feed more on former socialist voters than United We.

This paradox is explained by several reasons. The main one is that the majority of deputies who win the PP come from the losses of Cs (more than a score) and Casado would only snatch three seats directly from Sánchez obtained by the PSOE on 28-A. The rest of the PP's profits would come from Podemos, Vox and the nationalists.

The paradoxical fact that the PSOE could achieve some more seat despite its slight decrease in votes is due to the effects of the electoral decline of Cs and Podemos on the distribution of deputies in several provinces where the PP does not grow enough to be done With the last seat. Thus, although the PSOE could assign several deputies to Más País (in addition to those it would lose for the benefit of the Popular Party), it would compensate those losses with seats from Podemos and, above all, Citizens (more than half a dozen).

The three lefts would reach 170 seats and add the absolute majority in Congress along with the PNV

The resistance of Vox is also significant, since although it would yield two seats to the popular ones, it could recover one at the expense of the Iglesias coalition. The average vote of Vox represents a decrease of less than four tenths with respect to its 28-A result, so it can be deduced that the growth in voting of the PP is basically fed by the fall of Citizens.

That rise of the PP, combined with the slight fall of the PSOE, would allow Casado to aspire to victory in a long dozen provinces, more than double that of 28-A. Even so, in some of them – including Madrid – the struggle with the Socialists is very tight and the outcome is uncertain. And the same uncertainty involves districts such as Barcelona and Girona, where the impact of the CUP on the vote and the seats of Esquerra and JxCat remains to be seen.

Finally, the average survey attributes to More Country almost 5% in intention to vote, which, projected on the provinces where it presents lists, could be translated into a total of eight seats, the majority in Madrid and Valencia. More than half of those parliamentarians would come from the PSOE and Podemos, although the Errejón party could also catch some of those who lose citizens.

In any case, with the intention of an average vote that follows from the polls handled, the three lefts (PSOE, United We Can and More Country) would exceed 45% of the ballots and could harvest a total of 170 deputies in Congress. With the six of the PNV, absolute majority.

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