China will release tomorrow the official data of the growth of its gross domestic product (GDP) of the fourth quarter of 2018 and the entire year, with some uncertainty about whether it will be able to meet an objective (6.5%), which it already accepted by Yes the economic slowdown as an inevitable reality.
The director of the National Statistics Office (ONE), Ning Jizhe, who will be in charge of disclosing the data tomorrow at a press conference, said in a recent interview with state television CCTV that he expects China to comply with the aforementioned objective.
"2018 was an extraordinary year, although the domestic and global environment was complex and fluctuating, China's economic operations continued to maintain stable and regular growth," Ning said.
But the signs are not good: the province of Canton (southeast), one of the main export centers of the country, was not able to reach its growth target for this year (7.5%), staying at 6.5% .
Behind these data draws the shadow of the trade war with the United States, whose effects have not begun to be felt until December, so that the GDP data of the last quarter could also serve to verify to what extent it has damaged the economy China.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, an analyst at the British consultancy Capital Economics, believes that the recent downward pressure on the economy will finally be reflected in a "slight weakening" of GDP growth during the last quarter.
"Growth continued to decelerate during the last quarter, and other indices, such as manufacturing, also indicate the slowdown, although official figures may not be as hard, but growth has actually been lower in this period," he said. Evans-Pritchard, in a note to clients.
However, Chinese analysts seem somewhat more optimistic: according to a study by Bank of Communications, one of the main banking entities in the country, the data for the last quarter will be 6.4%, which would imply an annual accumulation of 6%. , 6%.
The same figure for 2018 is predicted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), slightly above the annual 6.5% that the World Bank (WB) foresees; both agencies, however, lowered their expectations for 2019 to 6.2%.
In any case, the fulfillment of the 6.5% target set by Beijing in 2018 would be a new finding of the slowdown in the Chinese economy: in 2015, GDP growth fell from 7% for the first time since 1990, reaching 6.9%.
Since then, it registered a 6.7% in 2016, although the following year it rallied and beat expectations with 6.8%.
This year, in the absence of the accumulated annual, are the quarterly records that mark a downward trend: 6.8% in the first, 6.7% in the second and 6.5% in the third.
Looking ahead, the predictions are that GDP growth will continue to fall in the first half of 2019 and stabilize in the second half to reach a figure of between 6 and 6.3 percent.
Moreover, the official press – a non-negligible thermometer of the insides of the regime – already warns that the reductions in expectations for 2019 are "acceptable" due to the challenges facing the Chinese economy.
The nationalist Global Times published an article in his Twitter account with a message that read: "Taking into account the multiple tasks of stabilizing economic growth, keeping risks at bay and adjusting the domestic structure (of the economy), it is good to slow down GDP growth ".
Although this news spoke of a generalized reduction in the growth objectives of local and regional governments, it can be a prelude to what awaits the national economy in 2019 marked by uncertainty and a new observation that optimism with the that started 2018 has vanished.