Catalonia, the uncertain variable of 10N

The Catalan crisis and the serious disturbances against the 'procés' sentence can take its toll on several formations but also give wings to others in the 10N elections, an effect that polls and analysts see clearly although they still do not dare to quantify while waiting of what happens in the campaign.

Everything indicates that the beneficiaries would be independence and the right, that Citizens would be the worst off, and that the PSOE would stagnate and have it even harder to achieve a majority of government.

This without taking into account the demonstrations or protests that may occur during the campaign and on the day of the elections, which makes the true impact of this conflict on the verdict of the polls even unpredictable.

The CIS survey on Tuesday does not reflect the possible impact of Catalonia on the elections because it was done before the sentence was published, but there are other subsequent surveys from which a series of clear trends emerge.

The majority agree that Vox will be the most favored, a party that would be able to place itself in third position with its speech in defense of the unity of Spain, the application of the State of emergency in Catalonia and the arrest of the Catalan president, Quim Torra.

Its leader, Santiago Abascal, values ​​with some skepticism the auguries of the surveys although he acknowledges, as he said on Tuesday, that he notes "a positive trend, a great mobilization around Vox".

In his opinion, people see that "it is a party that gives certainty, firmness in a moment of defiance of constitutional order and national unity."

To a lesser extent, the Catalan crisis would also boost the PP of Pablo Casado, a supporter of the application of the National Security law in Catalonia and of sending a request to Torra, as a previous step to the application of article 155 of the Constitution stipulating the autonomy intervention.

"Put order and demand compliance with the law" in Catalonia. That is what Casado promises to do if he arrives in Moncloa after the elections.

In the case of the PSOE and its candidate, Pedro Sánchez, this crisis can take its toll, as well as the support he obtained from the independentistas in the motion of censure against Mariano Rajoy.

The polls point to a stagnation of votes for the Socialists, although they would remain the most voted force.

What would influence them, and much, the Catalan crisis is when negotiating with other political forces for the formation of a new government.

Sanchez would have it harder to agree with ERC and JxCat, but above all, with the anti-capitalists of the CUP, training that opens in a general election and that, according to the polls, would break into Congress with up to 2 deputies.

It would also be difficult to reach agreements with United We because of their positions so different on the Catalan issue and that they have distanced themselves more as a result of the events of recent weeks.

In fact, Sanchez has come to say that, if they had closed an agreement after the April elections, with what happened following the publication of the 'procés' sentence, their infeasibility has become clear.

The leader of the purple formation, Pablo Iglesias, has always opted for dialogue in Catalonia because, in his opinion, what is happening there "is not a public order problem, it is a political problem."

Therefore, he considers "serious" and "a tease to the public" the fact that Sanchez avoids talking to Torra to try to find a solution.

Its position is totally opposite to that of Ciudadanos, the party of Albert Rivera that makes Catalonia its strong point and which, according to all the forecasts, would collapse after its last turns in relation to possible post-election pacts.

According to the latest polls, published this Monday, the Catalan conflict will also influence the mobilization of citizens and therefore, participation, which can even exceed 70 percent.

They point out, however, that neither block would add a majority and that the result would be even more complicated than that of April to reach government agreements.


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