Catalonia, from the Spanish economic locomotive to the tail car


On October 10, 2017, the Catalan Parliament approved the unilateral declaration of independence of Catalonia. A gesture clearly facing the gallery that had no legal effect, but economic. From that moment, As it explains BBVA Research in his latest analysis on regional economies, its economy has experienced "a change in trend" for the worse. The instability took over a region that already came from a few years of turmoil. This shows that the Executive of Quim Torra works with the extended accounts for 2017.

The change of course was first verified by the INE, which in December certified the economic sorpaso of the Community of Madrid to Catalonia as a national economic locomotive. The autonomy governed by the popular Isabel Díaz Ayuso became in 2018 the regional economy with greater weight within the national GDP, with 19.2% of the total, a circumstance that had not happened since 2013. And now it is the study service of the BBVA who notes that the former Spanish economic locomotive is going through very low hours.

GDP growth

GDP growth (Antonio Cruz / Madrid)

According to their forecasts, next year the Spanish GDP will advance 1.6%. Nine autonomous communities will experience progress equal to or greater than the national one: Andalusia (1.6%), Aragón (1.8%), Cantabria (1.7%), Castilla-La Mancha (1.9%), Extremadura (1 , 9%), Madrid (2.3%), Murcia (1.7%), Navarra (1.9%) and La Rioja (1.6%). Catalonia It is not among them. BBVA estimates that its wealth will advance 1.5%, like that of the Basque Country and the Valencian Community. Only four regions, Asturias (1.2%), Balearic Islands (1.3%), Canary Islands (1.1%), Castilla y León (1.4%) and Galicia (1.4%).

Downward Review

The BBVA study service has already had to revise its 2019 Catalonia growth estimates downwards. It cut its final growth one tenth, up to 1.7%, far from the 2.4% experienced by the Community of Madrid. The entity points out that «uncertainty would also be affecting the progress of Catalonia's activity». To this, he continues, the weakness of the industrial sector is added. Workforce reductions in companies such as Nissan or Calsonic led to workers affected in the region by employment regulation (ERE) files soaring up to 6,172, 162% more than a year earlier, according to data published by the Department of Catalan work. The Catalan industry accumulated last year a series of adverse circumstances that have taken its toll on its march. To the uncertainty generated by the process were added the commercial war between China and the United States, the poor progress of the German economy and the doubts projected by the Government of Pedro Sánchez on the automobile industry.

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