Calviño anticipates a bad unemployment data in March and opens the door to a reduction in economic forecasts
MADRID
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After what The Bank of Spain will announce a worse projection of GDP growth - from 6.8% to 6% - due to the delay in European funds and the vaccination campaign, the Government itself now opens the door to lower the economic forecasts for the current year. The Second Vice President of the Government and Minister of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation, Nadia calviño, recognized the existence of factors that would "rather" lead to a downward revision of the economic forecasts for this year. In detail, Calviño admitted that the employment data that will be known tomorrow, Tuesday, will not be positive because the third wave of the pandemic "has hit more than the second", although he did not hesitate to specify that the employment and economic figures were "from less to more" during the month of March.
"We left behind a first quarter that has been very hard," he remarked in an interview with RNE, where he recalled that other phenomena were added to the pandemic, such as the storm Filomena, "which has also had a very direct impact on consumption." In addition, he advanced that March "has not been a positive month from the employment point of view." «Now, what we have seen is that the month of March has gone from less to more both in terms of affiliations and in terms of workers leaving ERTE and the rate that we already have of workers who leave the day is good, "he said.
Faced with this scenario, the vice president specified that these factors would lead "rather" to a downward revision of the Government's economic forecasts for 2021, although she has specified that "On the other side of the scale" there are other positive indicators, What global recovery and stimulus programs like the one in the United States, which will have a favorable impact on Spain, especially in the second part of the year.
"Intense" in the second semester
Calviño stressed that all international organizations are integrating into their economic forecasts, "and the Spanish Government will have to do the same," two fundamental factors: the evolution of the pandemic, in which positive news is already taking place in the most advanced countries in vaccination, and the stimulus programs which are being approved in some countries, which will help to boost international trade and which will help an open economy like the Spanish one.
"Where there is unanimity is in considering that Spain will be one of the economies that will grow the most in 2021 and that growth will be intense especially in the second part of the year," said Calviño, who recalled the difficulty of making forecasts at times of uncertainty like the current ones.
Bonus reinstatement
On the other hand, Calviño assured that a new extension of the ERTE beyond May 31 should focus on favoring "the reinstatement of the workers." «What we have to do is adjust parameters to stimulate reactivation, to promote the reinstatement of workers, "said the vice president. “We have to simplify the types of contracts, reduce the temporality and that requires that we explore that all companies have internal flexibility mechanisms. We have seen that ERTEs can be useful and we must work on that mechanism that provides job stability, "he added about the upcoming labor reform.
The vice president also defended her decision not to raise the interprofessional minimum wage (SMI). "I think looking back we realize how important and how good it was to be cautious in this regard," he insisted.
Asked if the aid package for the self-employed and SMEs worth 11,000 million euros that the Executive has approved will be opened to new economic activities, the vice president has shown willing to adjust the parameters of these grants during the parliamentary process or to give a greater margin of action to the autonomous communities, since they are the ones who know which economic sectors need these funds the most
