The European Commission has revised its growth forecast for Spain up two tenths upwards in 2019, when it trusts that the economy will expand at a rate of 2.3%, practically double the growth of 1.2% projected for the area euro, while maintaining its evolution forecast of 1.9% in 2020, half a point above the average for the eurozone.
In its analysis, Brussels highlights the "surprise" of a growth of Spain in the first quarter (+ 0.7%) stronger than expected by the positive contribution of exports to the slight contraction of imports, adding that the dynamism of investment in housing and equipment offset the weakness of the increase in consumption.
The Commissioner of Economy, Pierre Moscovici, has declined in specular press conference with an eventual scenario of new elections in Spain, underlining the good progress of the Spanish economy, which has continued to progress, despite political uncertainty.
"The economic forecasts are solid and take into account the effective situation in Spain," said Moscovici, adding that "the Spanish economy is going really well in its structure, it is not the first time that there is uncertainty, and every time Spain has continued to progress "
For its part, from the Ministry of Economy and Enterprise has highlighted that "Spain is the only one of the large economies of the euro zone whose growth has been revised upwards due to the dynamism recorded in the first part of the year."
Last June, The Bank of Spain raised two tenths, up to 2.4%, its estimate ofand an increase in Spanish GDP for 2019, maintaining its forecasts for 2020 and 2021, respectively, at 1.9% and 1.7%.
Looking ahead to the following quarters, the European Commission indicates in its provisional summer forecasts that the surveys and activity indicators point to a 0.6% increase in GDP in the second quarter, surpassing, despite the slowdown, the forecasts of spring before the recovery of a certain impulse for consumption.
"Growth is expected to decrease somewhat in the third quarter of 2019, stabilizing around a 0.5% quarterly rate during the remaining quarters of the forecast horizon, in line with what was anticipated in the spring," the Commission notes.
In this sense, Brussels anticipates that domestic demand, and in particular consumption, will continue to be the main driver of the growth of the Spanish economy, with a virtually neutral contribution of net exports.
"In a context of global trade tensions, Spain's exports and imports are still expected to recover, but less than expected in the spring, "warns the Commission, adding that the increase in employment should decrease along the forecast horizon, although it will continue to expand strongly, which will further reduce the unemployment rate. that, together with wage increases, should support the increase in disposable income and a higher rate of household savings.
Regarding the evolution of prices in Spain, the new macroeconomic forecasts of the European Commission contemplate a harmonized inflation rate of 0.9% in 2019, four tenths below the average of 1.3% foreseen for the set of the euro zone, while in 2020 prices will rise by 1.2%, compared with 1.3% of the Nineteen.
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