BBVA Researchalready smolders with the cooking of the first data that will allow to make the forecasts of growth of the Spanish economy for this year. The chief economist of the study service of the financial institution,Pep Ruiz,He pointed yesterday in the capital of Gran Canaria that any prediction must be taken with reservations, but he did say that, leaving aside the last solution adopted for thebrexit, The Canarian economy is able to grow between 2% and 2.5%.
The safeguarding of the UK disconnection is not free. According to Ruiz, is a conditioner capable by itself, if addressed without any agreement between the parties, to ruin the calculations at the beginning of the year.
"Uncertainty"generated in the last days by the rejection of the British Parliament to the document agreed between the premier,Theresa May,and the president of the European Commission (EC),Jean-Claude Juncker,"it slows down the investment", explained the chief economist of BBVA Research.
The economy would digest a prolongation of the term beyond the predicted one -29 March- if it is to look for an alternative to the one known asbrexithard."Between occurring tomorrow in a brusque way or later but in an orderly manner, the second is always better," he said.
The lower growth registered by the Islands will come from the lower contribution of the tourism sector. The great growth achieved in past years by the main economic activity of the Archipelago can not be repeated.Not at all that means a debacle.Moreover, the climate of optimism is maintained around the reservations and the arrival of customers. "Tourism has shown great resistance," said Ruiz.
The landing is expected to be smooth in the lodging business and will mean that businessmen will have to "adjust margins", in the words ofchief economist of BBVA Research.It has been more than seven years since there was practically no competition after the closure due to security reasons of destinations such asEgypt, Tunisia or Turkey.During that time a long collection of visitor records has been treasured.
The tour operators, except during the summer season, had virtually no other option than the Canary Islands to offer their customers. In negotiations with hotel chains, theprice increaseOn the part of the hoteliers it was habitual tonic.
With the return of competitors,the Islands lose "the borrowed tourism.Now it's about using all the available capacities to face the situation that may come, "explained Pep Ruiz.There is room for the sector to continue collecting benefits, although less substantial.
In the opinion of the chief economist of BBVA Research, the loss of intensity of the accommodation activity will result in alower job creation.However, he estimated a prolongation of the reduction of the lists of unemployed. Ruiz placed this increase in employmentbelow 30,000 Social Security affiliatesand lower than last year, which closed with 26,495 more discharged workers.
The study service does not see what other sector can assume the reduction of the traction of the housing activity. "That takes years," said the chief economist, who, however, assured that theGovernment of the Canary Islandsit has more margin than those of other communities for having managed to keep the public deficit at bay.
Now, although the Executive can, for example, reactivate the construction through a plan for the improvement of housing, that solution would only serve"for the short term".Pep Ruiz recommended betting on "education", in addition to a "flexibilization of the labor market" that makes it "more inclusive".
Despite global uncertainties – the aforementionedbrexitor the US-China trade war, among others- the chief economist of BBVA Research pointed out that other factors can help sustain the economy. For example, thelower speedwith which the monetary authorities address the announced rate hike.