The events of the last quarter of 2017 in Catalonia were responsible for stop creating 30,000 jobs in this community, according to the estimates of BBVA Research, which foresees that the Catalan economy will grow 2.5% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019, slightly below all of Spain.
These data are highlighted in the report "Situation Catalonia", prepared by the BBVA Research Department and presented today by BBVA Research's chief economist for Spain, Miguel Cardoso, at a press conference.
The report analyzes the behavior of employment and concludes that Catalonia today it has 30,000 fewer members than the region would have if the events of the last quarter of 2017 had not taken place, which include terrorist attacks, the political crisis by the 'procés' and regulatory changes in tourism.
Cardoso has stressed thate "It is very difficult" to discern which of these factors have had the greatest impact on the slowdown in job creation.
"In Catalonia there has been a 'shock' that has not happened in other communities and that has made the job go from growing above the Spanish economy to doing it below. That means 30,000 jobs ", has said.
In relation to the forecasts for 2018 and 2019, BBVA Research considers that Catalonia will grow this year by 2.5% and 2.3% in 2019, less than in 2017 and below the whole of Spain (2.6% and 2%). , 4%, respectively).
If these estimates are met, Catalonia would complete six years with an average annual growth of 2.9% and could create some 130,000 jobs in these two years, reducing the unemployment rate to 10% by the end of 2019.
The good behavior of the exports of goods and the maintenance of the demand due to the laxity of the monetary policy, combined with a more expansive fiscal policy and the reduction of the uncertainty, push this growth.
The construction sector consolidates its recovery and could contribute significantly to the creation of employment in the coming years, according to the study.
With respect to the recovery of employment, the study warns that this does not occur homogeneously throughout Catalonia, since it is seen a greater dynamism in urban areas, especially in Barcelona, where the levels are already similar to those of before the crisis, and Girona.
Cardoso has warned of some risks that can worsen the scenario, such as "the exhaustion of packaged demand", the one that froze purchasing decisions due to economic uncertainty during the crisis and then reactivated them, and the loss of traction of the tail winds (low interest rates and oil price).
It has also warned of the slowdown in tourism, which shows a lower dynamism that may not recover, and the uncertainty in Spain about the tone of fiscal policy towards 2019, as well as the upward behavior of the price of oil.
"We do not know how far the slowdown in tourism will go, we should look for a sector that can replace it as a generator of employment," said the head of the BBVA study.