Government measures will hinder job creation and fiscal consolidation, although the inertia of the activity will cause the GDP continues to grow above the countries of our environment. Thus, in the eyes of BBVA Research, the Spanish economy will advance by 2.4% this year and 2% the next, maintaining its estimates against 2.2% and 2.1% respectively for the two fiscal years provided by the Government . And if the study service believes that Spain will create 800,000 jobs in two years warns that this traction could be greater: Without the 22% increase in the minimum interprofessional salary approved, up to 195,000 more jobs would be created in these two years.
Thus, BBVA warns that the rise of the SMI «unprecedented since the end of 1970» would subtract between one and three tenths of an advance in GDP, that is, between 1,257 and 3,700 million euros until 2020, with a drop in the rate of job creation that dances between 0.1 and 0.4 points. Translated into jobs would mean that the economy would generate between 75,000 and 195,000 fewer jobs, of which 20,000 to 75,000 would be only in 2019. It all depends on whether the companies transfer the full impact of the SMI rise to prices or reduce business margins, as happened in part with the rises of 2017 and 2018. In the worst scenario, without increases in productivity and a complete translation to prices, ten years could be subtracted 319,000 jobs, 160,000 in the best hypothesis.
Because, although it can raise more than six points the percentage of workers who charge 900 euros per month, it will also lead to layoffs and lower hiring. "The effect would be concentrated on the most vulnerable workers: women, young people, foreigners, the least qualified, those hired on a part-time basis, temporary workers and who work in companies smaller and uncompetitive ».
With everything, BBVA he admits that the rise of the SMI will boost an increase in the remuneration of employees and in spending. In the most optimistic scenario of companies assuming the salary increase, the wage bill will grow up to two tenths, although In the long term, the effect will be negative and may "increase inequality". Therefore, the head of Economic Analysis Rafael Doménech called for reforms to raise productivity and improve active employment policies.
Along with this, the deficit will derail and go to 2.3% of GDP if there are budgets or 2% if these are approved: that is, the goal of 1.3% will not be met. If there are accounts, yes, the GDP will grow two tenths less, to 2.2%, due to the increase in taxes that include the Budgets. Fiscal policy, in the words of Doménech, "is not a free menu, it will take its toll" as it is "bringing growth future to the present», That is, the long-term growth capacity is drained with greater public debt that will have to be paid and that will affect the future.
Simply, only with the cycle, the deficit would have ended at 2.1% this year compared to the final 2.7% for the measures adopted. The accounts will thus bring about a structural adjustment of two tenths, about 2,400 million, half of the four that the Government had calculated (of 4,800 million).
To the fiscal risks the politicians add, since the proximity of the autonomic elections press "upward»Spending, and parliamentary uncertainty, has subtracted an average of two tenths of a year (more than 2,400 million annually) since 2016, which this year would be just over one tenth. And to close the circle, the uncertainty caused by the "procés" has subtracted 25,000 jobs in Catalonia during 2018.
However, Spain resists the global slowdown: BBVA worsens its forecasts to the United States (to 2.5% in 2019, four tenths less) and the Eurozone (1.8%, two tenths of a cut), due to the lower impact of the stimulus fiscal Trump and the impact of protectionism on industrial production in Germany and Brexit. Spain This year it will face risks such as lower tourism due to the improvement of the geopolitical environment in competitors such as Tunisia and the drop in exports, but with a rise in rates that is far from 2020 and oil prices that have fallen by 25%.