The Bavarian electorate today struck another blow at the allies of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, by removing the absolute majority of the Social Christian Union (CSU) and plunging the Social Democrats into a catastrophic result, while relaunched the Greens to second place in that traditionalist "Land".
According to coincident projections of the public televisions ARD and ZDF, the CSU, party twinned to the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of Merkel, would obtain a 35.4% support, more than eleven points less than in the regional ones of 2013 and the worst results for training since 1954.
The Greens would achieve 18.9%, ten points higher than in the previous regional and the best result in history in this traditionalist "Land" for environmental education, which would thus become a preferred candidate to be the partner that requires the CSU, despite the differences that separate both parties.
In contention for the third position would be, according to these provisional projections, the so-called Free Voters – a rightist split of the CSU with strong roots at the municipal level in Bavaria – and the extreme right wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), at 11.6 and 10.9%, respectively.
Especially dramatic is the position of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), until now the second force in the "Land" and member of the Merkel coalition in Berlin, which sank at 9.5%, its historical record low, according to the projections
The Liberal Party (FDP), the only party with experience as a coalition partner of the CSU, will complete the regional chamber, since it formed a government with the conservatives between 2008 and 2013, but that alone will not be able to give the majority it needs, since it would have remained at 5% support.
The moral victors of the elections were the Greens, not only because of their second position, but also because this occurs when the polls in intention to vote on a national scale also shoot them above the SPD.
The environmental training will have a new opportunity to consolidate its progress within fifteen days, in the regional elections of Hesse – the state of Frankfurt, the financial capital of the country, where they are already minority partners in the regional coalition led by the CDU.
The far right would have been somewhat below the national average reached in the general elections of 2017 – 12.6% – in a "Land" where the right-wing vote is divided among several consolidated formations, such as the CSU and the Free Voters.
But with the seats won today it means that it already has parliamentary representation in 15 of the 16 "Länder" of the country, to which the Hessians are expected to join.
Apart from the shock on the scale of Bavaria, the results are a blow to the grand coalition between CDU / CSU and SPD led by Merkel, which was sealed in March after a laborious negotiating process and whose government management has been burdened by successive crises .
The main driver of the dissent has been the leader of the CSU and Interior Minister, Horst Seehofer, who professes a manifest antipathy towards Merkel and has repeatedly threatened to break the coalition between demands to take a right turn to his policy.
The dissensions also extend within the CSU, for the well-known internal rivalry between the leader of the party and the prime minister of the "Land", Markus Söder, in the position since the beginning of the year with the passage from Seehofer to Berlin.
In a first reaction to his militancy, Söder admitted that the results were bad for his training, to add that his purpose now is to achieve "a stable government", which implies negotiating an alliance for which, until now, his party has only discarded to the extreme right.
The unmistakable face of the defeat was offered, from Berlin, by the leader of the SPD, Andrea Nahles, who in a brief appearance acknowledged the dramatic defeat of his party, which he attributed to failing to separate the Bavarian election from the bad image of the great German coalition.
To the first reactions of Bavaria, after the electoral day, tomorrow will continue the meetings of the federal cupolas of the parties and subsequent declarations, among them those of Chancellor Merkel.
By Gemma Casadevall