In 2016 the global virus of ungovernability arrived in Spain. A year without a government in Madrid, although growth and job creation continued. The key was that the Autonomous Communities and City Councils did have governments. Andalusia was the paradigm of a stable government. A government of the PSOE with Citizens with an excellent personal chemistry between Susana Díaz and Juan Marín, as I could personally verify, that approved three budgets.
What was the results? In February 2015 there were 2.7 million Andalusians contributing to Social Security and last December 3.1 million, or almost 400,000 Andalusians have found a job. Employment grows to 3.3%, above the national average and triple that in the Eurozone. Andalusian exports have had a spectacular growth since 2015 and are already the second most exporting community, surpassing Madrid and only behind Catalonia.
Highlights the aerospace exports of components with technology developed in Andalusia by Andalusian companies with the support of Invercaria and Extenda that support the modernization of the business park, the main cause that explains the secular backwardness of the Andalusian economy. And they have achieved this with a brutal cut of public investment of 70% since Rajoy arrived at the Moncloa in 2011.
Andalusia has eradicated its public deficit, with spending on health at historic highs. The public debt of Andalusia is half that of Valencia, which was governed by the PP for 20 years. The Junta de Andalucía has managed to abandon the Autonomic Liquidity Fund (FLA) and issue debt in the markets with a risk premium similar to that of the Community of Madrid.
The new government of three party has promised tax cuts for about 1,200 million euros. And increase spending on health and education, which is three quarters of the total. The PP promises to end corruption but when they accused their mayor of Marbella for urban irregularities with a family land made her senator to be gauged. They say it is to reduce clientelist networks. But the PP in the City of Malaga wants to remunicipalize the garbage service. They promise to close Extenda that invests 20 million and Invercaria that has not lost since its inception and that have been key for many Andalusian SMEs to innovate and seek clients abroad to create jobs.
The Andalusians will have a government in minority with a president that Luis Garicano de Ciudadanos accused in 2014 of falsifying his curriculum and of not having merit to be so. And they will need the votes of the extreme right that Rivera has qualified as populist. Vox is an erratic and unpredictable party that will be necessary to approve any measure proposed by the new government.
For things like this, economists Daren Acemoglu and James Robinson have shown that countries fail. The experiment will allow measuring political instability in terms of employment. The problem in economics is that the experiment is done with human beings and affects nine million Andalusians. We will see.