Andalusia measures the erosion of the coalition government and Feijóo's options in the new electoral cycle

Andalusia reopens the electoral cycle with an appointment that will have an important national reading. Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo meet for the first time at the polls in the traditional fiefdom of socialism, which has no expectation of recovering the Board and fights to reissue at least the result of 2018, while the PP has campaigned for the polls with expectations of touching the absolute majority that allows him to get rid of Vox within the Government before the catastrophe of Citizens. That would be the worst scenario for the PSOE, which has seen the transfer of the socialist vote to the PP in recent polls. But the Andalusian elections will not only serve as a thermometer for the wear and tear of Sánchez, who managed to maintain the type in Castilla y León, but they are also the first test for Yolanda Díaz, who on this occasion has been involved in the campaign, although the left is It presents divided into the candidacies of Por Andalucía y Adelante, led by Teresa Rodríguez.

The Popular Party arrives at 19J with symptoms that it has more to lose than win in the appointment with the polls due to the expectations created. Nobody doubts that Juanma Moreno will win, and by far, on Sunday. But this analysis was already being done by Pablo Casado's strategists at the national headquarters on Génova Street in Madrid before the arrival of Alberto Núñez Feijóo. If the victory is not in doubt, what is at stake for the PP? If he assumes the normality of governing with the extreme right.

Neither Moreno nor Feijóo have expressly rejected a coalition with Vox. Both have said they don't want it, that they hope they don't need it. But at no time have they given up making Macarena Olona vice president. On the contrary: they have left the responsibility in the hands of the Andalusians, first, and the other parties, later. As if agreeing with those who relate sexual education and pederasty were a natural phenomenon from which the PP cannot be abstracted. Moreno's strategy has largely involved asking for a disenchanted socialist vote to "stop Vox." "It is not just a change of government, it is a change of mentality in Andalusia"expressed at the end of the campaign about the new stage that opened in Andalusia in 2018 with his arrival at the Junta.

The first electoral test of the PP of Feijóo can thus end with a very good result at the polls that it torpedoes, however, its attempts to distance itself from the extreme right and position itself as a party alien to histrionics, after the Galician broke away from Alfonso Fernández Mañueco's pact with Vox in Castilla y León. Aware of the problem, both Moreno and Feijóo have insisted in recent days on demanding an abstention from the left after pointing out Vox as "the worst". but without giving them up.

The tension is a consequence of the shift in Vox's strategy after agreeing to stay out of the Government of Isabel Díaz Ayuso in Madrid. The president of the party made it clear in one of his acts: "I don't know if we will get 30 seats as some polls say or 15 as others say. Whatever we get, it will be decisive for change." A phrase that hides another message: Vox's expectations are no longer what they were just a month ago. Believing they are capable of reaching the second position, Olona's candidacy has passed to settle for being essential in the investiture of Moreno.

Faced with the spirits of a PP fired in the polls, a PSOE without expectations He has tried to rebel against the polls and also against the PP's strategy of asking for the useful vote so as not to depend on the extreme right. "We socialists are people who are not stupid and if we are from the left, we will vote for the left so that the left governs. We are not going to vote for the right to find right-wing policies," said the candidate, Juan Espadas, hours before The campaign will be closed in an interview on TVE in which he prepared the ground for the day after by assuring that his project has had little time to consolidate – 20% of socialist voters do not know him, according to the CIS – and that he will stay up front no matter what: "I'm a long-distance runner. What both in San Vicente and in Ferraz refuse to give Moreno Bonilla abstention so that he does not depend on Vox and they remind Feijóo that he already had an offer to make a 'sanitary cordon' to the extreme right after the elections in Castilla y León and he "disregarded" it.

The PSOE campaign has tried to emphasize the administration of the Government, with a wide array of ministers and socialist leaders –although the presence of Sánchez has been less than in other electoral appointments with only three campaign events–. However, they fail to capitalize on the performance from Moncloa, according to the polls. Espadas has vindicated the years of socialism in the Junta, including the outlawed former presidents Manuel Chaves and José Antonio Griñán after José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero did so at a rally, and has focused his messages on the dismantling of public services in Andalusia, specially in the deterioration of public health. But in the socialist ranks they recognize that the PP no longer generates fear in what has been their granary of votes since the restoration of democracy. "Now that there are some who say they do not differentiate between the left and the right and tell us to differentiate between two rights, we must tell them that the truth on June 19 is not to choose between a right that smiles and a right that shouts, the truth is that you have to choose between a right-wing government or a left-wing government; a government that is committed to health or a government that is not committed to health; a government that is committed to solidarity or a government that cuts and increases inequality " Sanchez exclaimed. at the last rally in Seville.

And it is that nothing seems to take its toll on a catapulted PP in all the polls and the concern is taking over the PSOE before the symptoms of change of cycle that are glimpsed less than a year after the municipal and regional ones. Andalusia largely affects the psychology of socialism, which expects some kind of shock from Sánchez, who for now is focused on the NATO summit at the end of June and the State of the Nation Debate as the closest milestones. In Moncloa they also believe that the elections are taking place in the midst of a perfect storm in which the consequences of the war begin to have consequences in the pockets of citizens -as Sánchez and also the European authorities warned from almost the first day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine–, but they trust that the economic problems will be temporary and the takeoff will begin in the face of 2023.

To the left of the PSOE, the struggle is between the Por Andalucía coalition – which includes Podemos, IU, Más País, Equo, Alianza Verde and the Andalusian People's Initiative – and Adelante Andalucía, the brand led by Teresa Rodríguez. The average of all published polls They predict that, separately, both candidacies will obtain fewer seats than the 17 they achieved in 2018, before the breakup of the Anticapitalist sector. The crisis has also affected the formation of Por Andalucía, marked by the reproaches between Podemos and IU.

Andalusia has witnessed a conflict that really settles the weight of the different actors at the state level. For Andalusia, he trusts the advantage of being the candidacy supported by the Second Vice President of the Government and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz. Her presence at three rallies, along with Ione Belarra, Alberto Garzón and Íñigo Errejón, have boosted morale in the grassroots, but it remains to be seen if the militant mobilization translates into votes. The candidate, Inma Nieto, assured in the last act, supported by Alberto Garzón and Irene Montero, that in recent days she had noticed an improvement in expectations: "We have in hand that there is indeed a majority block of progress in Andalusia against the right".

Por Andalucía is the first rehearsal of the future project that Díaz may lead for the 2023 generals, and that will begin to take shape on July 8 in Madrid in the first act of 'Sumar'. The result of the coalition will be the first thermometer of electoral support for Díaz, who has chosen to claim a socialist vote.

If the confederal space struggles to maintain the state pulse, Ciudadanos is risking its survival at the polls. A very difficult challenge, according to the polls. The candidate, Juan Marín, has promised that if the party survives by the least he will abandon politics. He would be the second hit in just a few months, after the debacle in Castilla y León, and he would send a clear message to the state leader, Inés Arrimadas. "You've fucking done it"Marín told his team at the campaign farewell.

In Ciudadanos they trust the undecided and they are running as the guarantee that the PP will not govern with Vox. But in the campaign, those of Arrimadas have embraced the identity politics of the extreme right. It was the party president herself who announced a proposal to remove the term “nationalities” from the Constitution. A name that is applied to Andalusia, which obtained its autonomy through the same process as Catalonia, Euskadi or Galicia. A risky strategy in the face of a more than uncertain future, informs Carmen Moraga.

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