This year, IPOs in Spain will be reactivated after the break in 2018 and 2019 and companies such as Cabify, Cepsa or Línea Directa could debut in the parquet, although political instability and macroeconomic context could condition them, according to analysts consulted by the Efe Agency .
The general director of CMC Markets, Sara Carbonell, believes that a IPO depends a lot on “how is the country” and that the “bump” of recent years responds to the political and macroeconomic environment “did not accompany.”
In this sense, it warns of the risks of constituting a national government of a “populist” court that “implements new laws or regulations that may go against certain sectors.”
“In this case, companies probably think a lot if they go public. … In the end the government of a country affects the economic situation and in turn the stock market situation,” says Carbonell.
The director of investments of Luna Sevilla Asesores, José María Luna, warns that the “growing appetite” of investors for equities could also be affected by geopolitical factors “that seem to be relaxed”, such as “brexit” or US trade war and China
“If the positions become entrenched, we could see volatility in the financial markets again and money could prefer refuge assets, such as debt, gold or other assets and the stock market would have a slightly more complicated start,” says Luna.
According to Carbonell, most companies that are “in the spotlight” to go public are “very local” and do not have “large size”, so he considers that the Spanish political situation will be what weighs most in the decision , except for “very serious” events that “affect the world economy”.
For the XTB analyst Miguel Momobela, the most significant exit of the year could be the one carried out by the “startup” Cabify if it finally follows in the footsteps of other companies in the sector, such as Uber or Lyft.
Momobela considers that he could have “a moderate progression” after a small correction after the exit, which, according to his estimates, would be lower than that suffered by Uber, since “his turnover is being very positive”.
Analysts agree that another of the most likely parquet jumps is that of Cepsa.
However, the return to the parquet of the Spanish oil company could be conditioned by “the problem of the price of crude oil”, especially by the latest inventories and “the burden of the mid-September attack on the Aramco refineries”, according to the XTB analyst.
CMC Market also considers the Direct Line to be very predictable, since “Bankinter has taken it out of its global set”.
In addition to these companies, analysts are considering others such as Ibercaja, Wizink, Mediapro, Vips or Europastry.
In these specific cases, Momobela points out “internal problems” as the main factors that could stop the jump to the Madrid parquet floor.
“They have more barriers to entry and in the case of not occurring now, it would be more complicated to do so in future years. We could say that it is a now or never,” says the XTB analyst.
In the case of Wizink, from XTB they point to the numerous claims they have had to face recently, many of them for “inconsistencies in the contractually agreed conditions”.
With regard to Ibercaja, Momobela warns that as an alternative to a IPO, he could opt for the creation of a “working capital”, although he emphasizes that “it could be quite expensive,” although it is the way they have opted for other entities, such as Kutxabank.